PHOENIX — The most likely odds had Phoenix Suns choosing fifth in the 2013 NBA Draft — that was at 35 percent — and that’s where they fell on Tuesday in the draft lottery.

The Suns came into the day with an 11.9 percent shot of selecting first, a 12.6 percent shot of picking second and a 13.3 percent chance of being third, but the Washington Wizards made a leap up the draft board. With a 70.3 percent shot of selecting eighth, the Wizards jumped to the third slot. Cleveland, which came in with the third-best chances of winning the lottery won while the Orlando Magic came in second.

At fifth, the Suns will see the second-tier level of talent and miss out on Nerlens Noel, Otto Porter and Ben McLemore, who are three players expected to be atop most mock drafts. But the talent dropoff isn’t that big of a gap with only Noel a lock to be selected in the top-three. Victor Oladipo, Anthony Bennett, Trey Burke, C.J. McCollum and Shabazz Muhammad are all in the mix and could do some damage to increase their value with team workouts.

“I think there are more than five good players in this draft,” Suns general manager Ryan McDonough said. “I think the grouping is pretty close. One of the difficult things … is figuring who’s going to be at the five-slot. We’ll prepare for everybody.”

McDonough said the Suns will make a list of eight to 10 players to focus upon regarding their first pick. His draft philosophy is simple: take the best player.

“Ideally, you have a pretty complete player,” he said.

While the Suns are in the fifth slot, they do have enough picks piled up and assets to have a great deal of flexibility. A decipal of the always tinkering Danny Ainge, McDonough said he will explore all possibilities.

“It depends what the price is, what the teams up ahead of us want,” he said. “I’m pretty comfortable in the fifth slot. It depends on what the teams ahead of us are going to do.”

Check back in a bit for a Valley of the Suns Google Hangout show. Here’s a look at the full order of picks.

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When the Suns spent last year’s lottery pick on Kendall Marshall, many thought he would — at worst — be the backup point guard to Steve Nash or, later on, Goran Dragic.

Instead Marshall struggled, to the point journeyman Sebastian Telfair beat him out for the job. Outside shooting, it turned out, wasn’t the only item on Marshall’s “needs to improve” list. Energy and defense were there too.

Intent on letting Marshall develop all those qualities on the floor and not the bench, the Suns sent the North Carolina standout to the D-League.

Marshall wasn’t the only rookie to get such an assignment. Jeremy Lamb and Perry Jones were others. That didn’t stem the disappointment, however, for UNC’s all-time best player in terms of assists-per-game average (9.8 apg). While his outside shooting stroke and athleticism were known question marks when the Suns acquired him, Marshall’s inability to provide an immediate impact followed that other mid-first round picks, such as Robin Lopez and Earl Clark.

In his nine-game stint in the D-League, Marshall confirmed the concerns about his game, shooting just 31.3 percent from the floor, including 22.2 percent from deep. Other than his predictably good passing numbers (7.6 apg), Marshall showed little, if any, tangible improvement.

His saving grace ended up being the awkward coaching regime shift from Alvin Gentry to Lindsey Hunter. The former Director of Player Development, Hunter was one of the few within the organization who had invested significantly into Marshall after his being drafted. This was reinforced shortly after Hunter’s hiring, when the Suns traded Telfair to Toronto for Hamed Haddadi and a draft pick.

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Table courtesy of Piston Powered

Time: Tuesday, May 21, 5:30 p.m. PST

TV: ESPN

Finally, the Phoenix Suns have found themselves not only in the lottery, but in a good position to win it. The NBA Draft Lottery kicks off at 5:30 p.m. on Tuesday and the Suns’ fourth-worst NBA record gives them the fourth-likely chance of winning the top overall pick. Suns president of basketball operations Lon Babby will be in attendance in New York, while GM Ryan McDonough remains in Phoenix. McDonough will address the media following the pick.

Their chances stand at 11.9 percent, but history proves that it’s truly up to luck. Since the draft lottery started operating in a weighted format in 1990, the fourth-worst team has never won; the 1994 Bucks earned the fourth slot and got the top pick, but they were only the fourth team in line by losing a three-way tiebreaker with the second-worst NBA record. The Orlando Magic stand in Phoenix’s way as the most-likely suitors to get the first pick, but their odds only sit at 25 percent. The Charlotte Bobcats (19.9 percent shot of winning) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (15.6 percent) also have better chances than the Suns.

But there’s good reason to never say never.

In 1993, the Orlando Magic were coming off a decent rebuilding year after selecting top pick Shaquille O’Neal the year prior. Despite having the 11th-worst NBA record, they won the lottery and used the pick on Chris Webber, who was immediately exchanged for Penny Hardaway.

The league’s worst team hasn’t picked first since 2004, when the Magic selected Dwight Howard after putting up the NBA’s worst mark.

The Suns should be simply happy to have a decent shot at selecting first overall. In the lottery era the Suns have selected in the top-10 only three times, and they haven’t been in a position to pick so high since 2004 when they netted the seventh overall pick but traded Luol Deng to the Chicago Bulls for second-round choice Jackson Vroman and a 2005 late first-round pick that became Nate Robinson.

Phoenix has selected in the top-5 only six times. Those picks included Neal Walk at No. 2 in 1969, Corky Calhoun at fourth in 1972, John Shumate also at fourth in 1974, Alvan Adams at fourth in 1975, Walter Davis at fifth in 1977 and most recently Armen Gilliam as the second overall pick in 1987.

If the Suns become the first team with the fourth-worst record to win the lottery, it wouldn’t be all that surprising. The teams that have won the lottery the most in the 23 years since the lottery’s weighed system began are the third-worst teams and the fifth-worst teams, which have each won the lottery five times.

As the below shows, Phoenix has historically been very good at getting value when it selects in the middle of the lottery. Amare Stoudemire and Shawn Marion were building blocks for very successful teams, after all. Should the Suns have kept Deng, their luck in the top-10 would still be considered exceptional.

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When Phoenix traded Boris Diaw to Charlotte for Jason Richardson back in 2008, it received Jared Dudley as an extra throw-in as part of the deal.

What the Suns didn’t know: they were getting was someone with a chip on their shoulder. An edge. A bit player intent on proving he was more than that.

For two years Dudley did just that, pushing the starters in front of him, starters who knew that head coach Alvin Gentry had no problem sitting them in favor of Dudley’s hustle and improved shooting stroke if they weren’t providing at least that much on the floor themselves.

Dudley found out what that feels like this season. Now a known-quantity with a long-term contract, the Boston College product, saw his minutes — and role — fluctuate after P.J. Tucker started providing the hustle and energy on which Dudley once prided himself. Assumed to be a full-time starter with both Richardson and Grant Hill gone, Dudley started just 50 of the 79 games he played this season.

It hasn’t helped that Dudley’s production has basically flatlined over the past three seasons.

Jared Dudley’s per 36 minutes stats

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Stability hasn’t been there for the Phoenix Suns. The franchise has essentially required turnstyles just to keep their coaching and front office staffs in relative order. And for Michael Beasley, the combination of that and his personal instability caused the proverbial excrement to hit the fan during the 2012-13 season.

That was all innocent in comparison to the reports that a sexual-assault claim was filed against the Suns forward for a January incident. While that could be simply a case of an athlete being targeted for his fame, nothing can be good for Beasley’s image. He already had a legal issue with a January traffic stop for speeding that involved an expired license and a loaded firearm.

Beasley didn’t handle the season well on the court, either.

His three-year, $18 million contract and career-worst numbers put the pressure on. Alvin Gentry’s attempt to mold him into a playmaker and ballhandler didn’t force him to focus, neither did a benching and neither did Lindsey Hunter’s persistence in holding him accountable.

No matter the case, Beasley was consistently inconsistent. He never for more than a few games in a row flashed his talent that defined his success in high school and college. For that, the Phoenix brass has a difficult situation on its hands — it’ll be hard for the franchise to wash this off of them.

The numbers don’t make the offseason signing that made then-general manager Lance Blanks giddy with excitement look like a good one.

Of the Suns who played at least 15 percent of the available minutes, Beasley had the third-worst on-court plus-minus of -10.4, behind only Kendall Marshall’s -12.7 and Wesley Johnson’s -11.6. Beasley recorded the second-best off-the-court plus-minus on the team of -3.9, only trailing Markieff Morris’ -3.8, according to 82games.com. Beasley’s PER has fallen in every one of his five NBA seasons, and his effective field goal percentage (taking into account the value of a three-point shot) and true shooting percentage (which also accounts for threes and free throws) each hit all-time lows. According to HoopData.com and Basketball-Reference.com, his true shooting percentage was more than 4 percent lower than it has been in any of Beasley’s first four seasons.

Beasley was dead last in the NBA – 469th to be exact – in win shares with a figure of -1.5, according to Basketball-Reference.com.

Whatever the statistics might show, none harbor the value of his lack of consistency. None can lend evidence to what’s going on in Beasley’s head.

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