2015 NBA Draft: Who Shouldn’t The Suns Pick?
By Eric Saar
Well, the 2015 NBA Draft Lottery was the ultimate teaser, as it is every year. The Phoenix Suns sat with bated breath hoping for a miniscule chance at moving into the top three for the draft in late June. However, disappointment set in as the inevitable happened. The Suns stayed where they were projected as the 13th pick in this year’s draft.
The problem is, and always has been, mediocrity. Chances are, with a middling first-rounder, you can’t get a core piece for a championship contender, only an average rotation player. This issue arises because the Suns are never bad enough to warrant a top pick (thank goodness), but they also aren’t good enough to make the playoffs. Also, the Suns have a pretty decent roster, but need a star. Unfortunately, they probably won’t get one with the 13th pick.
Fortunately, that problem is a case of “usually” or “statistically speaking,” not a case-by-case basis. At any point during the draft, a good player can fall to you. For example, probable future Hall-of-Famer Manu Ginobili was picked 57th overall by the San Antonio Spurs. It’s all about smart evaluation of talent, traits and potential. If you can avoid those busts or “bad fits,” you drastically can improve your team without a high pick.
As a rule, Phoenix should go with upside. They aren’t a contender looking to bolster a roster to a championship. They need a star. Go for the home run.
After looking at some tape of the players that should still be on the board when the Suns pick 13th overall, I came up with some players they should target and some they should leave alone.
So, who shouldn’t the Suns pick with their first-rounder?
Generally, I’d automatically eliminate any shooting guards. You already have your basic guard platoon with Eric Bledsoe, Archie Goodwin and they’ll probably re-sign Brandon Knight. Goodwin had better get a bunch of rotation minutes this upcoming year. If you can get a serious playmaker at the point guard position to run the second unit for the small amount of minutes both Bledsoe and Knight are resting, then okay.
But unless you trade up for…say… D’Angelo Russell, it’s not really worth it to take anyone else for the point guard spot. Just give the small role of backup point guard to a veteran at the minimum salary.
I’d also eliminate most of the small forwards. The only exceptions are Justise Winslow and Kelly Oubre Jr. Both of those guys have so much upside and could really anchor a small ball lineup defensively, similar to what Golden State has been doing.
I don’t want Stanley Johnson (though he’ll be a decent player) because he’s basically a slightly worse version of T.J. Warren. I’d be okay, if the Suns ended up with Sam Dekker, but wouldn’t necessarily target him. He just doesn’t have the upside Phoenix needs out of this pick.
Transitioning to some bigger guys, I would say don’t pick a center with this pick. You already have Alex Len and probably Brandan Wright. Go with a backup center in the second round. I’m advocating Dakari Johnson. The no center policy applies to Myles Turner. He’s not replacing Alex Len and isn’t mobile enough to play the four.
Now Bobby Portis is someone to consider. He rebounds and has a great motor. I’d be fine if they drafted him.
Trey Lyles would be a decent pick, but wouldn’t be elite enough on defense, so I’d stay away from him. The Suns really need rebounding and defense at an elite level from this pick. They’ve lost a ton of games the last few years by getting beaten on the boards and in the paint.
Looney would be a great pick. He has the upside we are looking for, though the bust potential scares me.
So now there is a profile for who the Suns should draft by eliminating who they should stay away from. Let’s recap.
No shooting guards or point guards (unless you trade up and get D’Angelo Russell). In terms of small forwards, only Justise Winslow (if you can even get him). Try for a power forward, but only if they are good at defense and rebounding and have upside. No centers.
Right now, I’d try and get Kelly Oubre Jr. I love the fluidity to his game, his wingspan, rebounding ability and upside. I think once he puts some weight on at the next level, he can be an elite four man in a small-ball lineup that would take Phoenix to the playoffs in a couple years.
Next: Phoenix Suns: 10 Best Draft Picks In Team History