The Phoenix Suns Will Not Win 30 Games Next Season
By Branden Wyss
The Phoenix Suns roster this year remains largely the same as last year, with the most notable differences being the loss of P.J. Tucker for Josh Jackson and the release of Leandro Barbosa for Davon Reed.
This is a team that will most likely rely on internal development without any hope of increasing their win total this year. The Suns won 24 games last year and ended up with the second worst record, fans should expect at least one more year of the same.
This whole discussion begins with Kevin Pelton of ESPN stating that the Phoenix Suns will win 30 games next season.
Before I begin, this is not me bagging on our Suns by any means, in fact, I do project the Phoenix Suns winning more games this year (24 -> 28) than last. But 30 wins is not happening, not in this year’s Western Conference.
The differences this year to the roster is subtle and they’re enough to make us believe that we’re in for another losing season. This year though, the Suns don’t have their defensive leader in P.J. Tucker starting from the get go which means T.J. Warren will probably start for the first few games as they ease in Jackson, who will eventually become the starter some games into the season. This is similar to what happened with Marquese Chriss last year.
The confusion here comes from where these win projections get their information. The Suns literally have not done much to their roster worth praise of more wins.
Chriss’ familiarity with basketball will only increase after having a full season of NBA basketball experience behind him – expect his numbers to increase.
One of the more interesting assessments towards an increase in wins however would be a full season from Dragan Bender.
Throughout the Summer League Dragan Bender looked increasingly confident in his role and seems to have come along a lot more in one year as an NBA player. A full NBA season in which he can average something along the lines of 12 points, 6 rebounds and 4 assists in around 25 minutes would should dramatic internal development and would give this young man a promising future with the Suns.
Booker’s development towards being an All-Star level player alone should add at least four more wins. However, the Suns also lost Brandon Knight to an ACL injury and P.J. Tucker, two veteran players who have their own unique skill sets that can’t be ignored.
That, and Josh Jackson being a rookie while taking most of P.J.’s minutes will lead to certain struggles this year.
Jackson himself provides a strong defensive presence, however, his versatility with guarding multiple positions in the NBA is yet to be determined.
Below, P.J. Tucker demonstrates his former value with the Phoenix Suns by guarding Karl-Anthony Towns for a majority of a defensive possession, bullying a center who’s 25 pounds heavier than him.
Also, depending on how things go to begin the season, I definitely still see the Suns making a trade to fall even farther into the rebuilding processes.
Even if the Suns do not trade for Kyrie Irving at some point during the year (which I am a fan of), Bledsoe will be moved. Look for the Nuggets to get increasingly impatient towards a playoff push mid-season and look for them to acquire Bledsoe for some combination of Muddiay, another player and a low first round pick.
The loss of Bledsoe at some point during the season will be a major factor to an increase of losses this year. One way or another, Bledsoe will not be playing after the trade deadline for the Phoenix Suns this season.
Lastly, some of these win total projections don’t make a ton of sense. One projection that especially doesn’t make sense for the Suns is that Phoenix is projected to win more games than the Nets, which personally I hope isn’t true. I am actually a fan of the majority of the moves made by the Nets front office. They don’t have their own first round pick this year, so the amount of wins they get this year is irrelevant to their own internal development (not to mention they play in the now less-competative Eastern Conference.
They will also be playing a lot harder throughout the season due to the fact that their lack of wins are useful to the Boston Celtics. The more wins the Nets get, the worse off the pick going to Boston will be, who just so happens to be a Conference rival. Look for the Brooklyn Nets to try and change that.
A lineup of Jeremy Lin/D’Angelo Russell, Allen Crabbe, DeMarre Carroll, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, and Timofey Mozgov definitely has enough veteran experience to be at least a 30 win team.
Suns fans and the organization alike should know to expect that the team would be better off finishing as one of the bottom three teams for one more year as they will have one more opportunity at drafting.
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I will keep stressing that there is no reason we should want the Suns to win games.
Phoenix can get a transcendental center in DeAndre Ayton or Mohamed Bamba if they tank just one more year. This would put them in prime position to go after some players in free agency next year – if nothing else than to add veteran depth to a young starting group.
The Suns can truly start building toward a contender after one more bad year, and will do so with another season of less than 30 wins.