Phoenix Suns: What To Expect From T.J Warren In 2015-16
As a team in a semi-rebuilding stage, the Phoenix Suns are relatively young. The presence of a couple of veteran leaders like P.J. Tucker and Tyson Chandler skews the average age, but by and large, the team is made up of players who are, at best, just approaching their prime.
The most important players for a young team are, no surprise, their young assets. The Suns have a handful of guys entering their first, second, or third year with interesting potential. The one who has generated the most hype of late is forward T.J. Warren.
ALSO ON VALLEY OF THE SUNS: Steve Nash’s Top 10 Moments With The Suns
Warren was picked 14th in the 2014 NBA Draft. In his first few months, he was stuck behind P.J. Tucker and Marcus Morris for small forward minutes. After the team reshuffled at the deadline and injuries hit, Warren got to have his turn to show what he was made of.
He looked solid, and the hype has grown since his dominant showing in the NBA Summer League, where he averaged 18.7 points and 3.6 rebounds per game. He was rewarded with Summer League First Team honors.
My guy @TonyWarrenJr been putting in work! #withoutsayingnothing
— Eric Bledsoe (@EBled2) July 19, 2015
His great play sparked debate about whether or not T.J. Warren should be the starting small forward. I’ll give my take on that in a bit, but for now, here’s a basic rundown of what Warren does on the floor.
Warren is an aberration in the modern NBA, both in his physical gifts and his style of play. He’s 6’8″ but incredibly mobile, and he uses that combination to get his shots in the paint. He shot 68.5 percent in the restricted area last season and 72.5 percent at the rim.
Here’s the best way to describe T.J. Warren playing basketball: You know when a heat check guy such as J.R. Smith or Jamal Crawford gets hot, and they start making crazy stepback threes that you don’t think anyone should even be allowed to attempt, let alone make four straight times? That’s basically T.J. Warren in the paint.
His college upbringing at NC State allowed him to dominate the offense. Despite being the primary scorer on his team, Warren was both productive and efficient in college. His interior scoring ability made him a one-man wrecking crew.
Those skills have not translated to the NBA in the same volume. Defenders are bigger and more physical. However, those elements of Warren’s game are still his primary asset, and he has been productive in limited time using them.
I can’t even explain in much detail how he’s doing it. He’s just the right amount of big, fast and smart to beat out defenders at the rim.
One quietly awful aspect of the Suns last season was that the entire team was atrociously bad at screening. The fast pace and the lack of discipline left picks poorly timed and incomplete. Brandan Wright buys T.J. Warren maybe half a step, and Warren uses all of it to maximum potential. Then he just essentially proceeds like Jason Thompson isn’t even there.
His signature move is his running floater, a difficult maneuver that he makes look easy.
Dion Waiters plays Warren carefully, backing off and preparing to defend a drive to the rim. Once Warren gets space, he just pulls the trigger. It’s a pretty basic basketball axiom that defenses will allow only the least efficient shots. Guys like Warren, who take the dust and make diamonds out of garbage shots, are hard to plan for.
He’s really good at a dying skill in the NBA. On one hand, that makes him an awkward fit for the Suns or any team. On the other, that inherently raises the difficulty of defending him and, by proxy, his team.
The fact that Warren has a niche skill in the NBA that is both developed and unique gives him a great starting point for a successful pro career. He has a lot to learn, but he has one key skill that allows him to get on the floor, where he can then face the challenge of evolving in other aspects.
Now that I’ve spent a couple hundred words telling what T.J. Warren can do, it’s time to look at where he needs to improve. He’s a so-so rebounder, despite being tall and athletic enough to compete on the glass. He also really struggled with his outside shot, posting a 23.8 percent three-point percentage last season.
It doesn’t look like his shot is broken beyond repair. Some guys take time to learn how to hit jumpers. It takes grinding repetition, and while it seems like Warren is the kind of guy willing to put in the work, it’s not a for sure thing that he will expand his range on offense.
Defensively is where it’s hard to chart Warren. Basic stats show that he’s a small net positive. Per NBA.com, opponents shot 0.6 percent worse when Warren was on them. His 103.9 defensive rating isn’t as good.
Hornacek wants to get TJ Warren some time at the two-guard if matchups permit. Likes his defense, off-the-ball instincts #SunsVsWarriors
— Matt Petersen (@TheMattPetersen) March 10, 2015
He has the basics down. He moves his feet, isn’t lazy or weak, and has a general sense about what to do off-ball and when to help. He’s far from reaching his full potential on that end. There is a learning curve, and in half a season, Warren made respectable progress.
Live Feed
Sir Charles In Charge
While I am excited to see Warren this season, I stand by P.J. Tucker as the starter. Warren’s defense is good for his experience level, but he can’t be assigned to guard LeBron James and hold his own as a second-year player. Warren is better as a team defender rather than an on-ball stopper who can slow down star players.
Warren’s lack of range also makes it challenging to work him into the lineup, because eventually there’s a point when the Suns won’t have enough spacing. Tyson Chandler has no range, and depending on how the situation with Markieff Morris plays out, the Suns may have a stretch big or someone else who can’t shoot as the starting 4.
Given that Eric Bledsoe is not a dependable shooter either, this creates a problem. Tucker isn’t an offensive force, but his ability to hit corner threes gives at least some spacing.
Warren should still come off the bench, but if he can get 20 or so minutes per game at either forward spot, that would be a major boost for his development. His skill set is currently limited, which is fine for a second year player, but he’s also got the hype around him for a breakout season.
Now we just have to see if he lives up to expectations.
Next: Who Will Be Next To Enter The Suns Ring Of Honor?