Turnovers, defense, fouls, rebounding, three-point shooting, free throw shooting.
It seems like the Phoenix Suns have lost in just about every fashion over the last few weeks, as the team has dropped its last five, while going 1-8 in its last nine. However, the task tonight is far less daunting.
The Denver Nuggets come into this game at 1-9 in their last ten, and they’ve gone 2-16 in the last month-and-a-half or so. Denver only has one player currently on the roster averaging more than 14.0 points per game and only one player on the team is shooting better than 36% from three. That player, Will Barton, has played in a grand total of two games as a member of the Nuggets, logging a combined 47 minutes in his appearances.
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Simply put, the Nuggets are not a very good team at all. They’re in the bottom half of the league in points per game, free throw percentage, field goal percentage defense, assists per game, average differential, forced turnovers per game and steals per game, and they’re in the bottom five in field goal percentage, three-point percentage and points allowed per game.
The Suns outrank the Nuggets in eight of the 10 categories listed above, and they should have the matchup advantage at just about every position, depending on how you feel about Ty Lawson. However, with all that being said, there aren’t really any teams that Phoenix can afford to coast on and still defeat, so the team will need to be sure to keep its foot on the pedal early on, at the very least.
Almost every Vegas sports book has the Suns winning this one by 2.5-or-more points, and the ESPN Pick Center gives the Suns a 5.0 point advantage, and all of this is after the Suns have lost five games in a row. The Suns should absolutely expect to win this game, and if there’s any chance (however slim) left of the Suns making the playoffs, they must to win this game, and do so in convincing fashion.
Clash of the Titans
The battle on the boards should be a sight to see, as Alex Len (7’1, 255 pounds) squares off against Denver’s Jusuf Nurkic (6’11, 280 pounds). The two big men combine for nearly 27 rebounds per 40 minutes, and it should be a lot of fun to watch them go at it, especially considering their successes as of late.
It’s crazy to think that right before the All Star break, Alex Len was involved in a pretty gruesome collision, where he appeared to turn his ankle, because since then, he’s averaged 9.7 points, 11.0 rebounds and 4.3 blocks per game, in an average of 32 minutes. Len has absolutely been as good as advertised, despite a somewhat rough outing against Pau Gasol and the Bulls, and it’s nice to see that he’s put all rumblings of him hitting a wall to rest.
Nurkic, on the other hand, is a fairly mobile big man, who has been a force down low, averaging 2.9 blocks per 40 minutes. Prior to the season, I actually wrote a piece about Nurkic as a draft prospect, and I’ve been blown away with how quickly he’s progressed since then. While he’s certainly still raw, there’s a lot for Nuggets fans to like about the kid, especially his confidence.
The NBA's newest goon- 20 year old Jusuf Nurkic aka The Bosnian Bear. Tough as nails. Watch him sneer at Marc Gasolhttps://t.co/kgTZ5Fg7OV
— Tich Mabiza (@TheAssistMan) February 5, 2015
Previous meetings
Earlier this year, the Suns and the Nuggets played each other in two consecutive games, although it was not on a back-to-back, as there was an extra day in between. In both games, the home team won, although Denver’s win was about 20-points more impressive than the Suns’ win, as the Nuggets dominated the game right from the start.
In those earlier meetings, Gerald Green was a key factor, averaging 18.0 points per game, and the man that Ryan McDonough referred to as the Suns best player, Eric Bledsoe, averaged 18.5 points and 7.0 assists per game.
That was the good. This is the bad:
The Suns committed 31 turnovers between the two contests, and that mark of 15.5 turnovers per game would actually rank 27th in the NBA right now. The Suns already have their turnover woes, so putting up performances that actually involved committing more turnovers then they average is not something that’s going to get the job done.
The last time the Suns had less than 10 turnovers in a game was January 28 against the Washington Wizards, and considering that the Nuggets (22nd in the NBA) are actually five spots below the Wizards (17th) in forced turnovers per game, there’s a real chance for the team to end that mark.
Prediction
Things finally get back on track, not only for the Suns, but for Markieff Morris, who has shot just 6-of-24 in his last two games. Len posts a double-double, and Bledsoe scores 18 points, as the Suns control the game start to finish, en route to a fairly comfortable victory.
Phoenix 105, Denver 92