Suns Squared: Jayson Tatum

Now that we know the Suns are drafting fourth overall in June, let’s continue our analytical series with a look at who might be the best available when Phoenix I see on the clock – Jayson Tatum

Jayson Tatum spent the season flying somewhat under the radar on a Duke team that underperformed and was mired in controversy for much of the season. Despite that, Tatum is still a top prospect who boasts can’t miss potential and a versatile skill set. Tatum excelled this season as an Iso-scorer because of his mix of size, strength, and quickness. This versatility makes Tatum extremely difficult to guard, something that is visually apparent when looking at his stats.

Tatum has a very balanced stat line although when compared to the rest of the top-5 prospects, his numbers tend toward the middle ground. One exciting thing that does stand out for him, however, is that Tatum boasted the second highest scoring numbers of the top-5, though coupled with the second lowest usage rate, making it very clear how easily Tatum was able to score when he needed too.

Tatum’s versatility is seen in his advanced numbers, he was able to get to the line often while also shooting three-pointers at a solid average, albeit at a lower percentage that will need to improve, (34%). Tatum also put up strong defensive numbers with a 97.8 defensive rating and a 1.8 defensive win score.

Tatum’s weaknesses are also uncovered in his stats, especially that he had the lowest shooting percentage of all the top-5 prospects though he also put up an extremely poor 3.7 assists per-100 possessions, which is likely a result of Tatum’s isolation heavy game.

15

19.7

0.208

Tatum stands out from the group when it comes to two specific advanced numbers. First is Tatum’s defensive rebounding rate, which was 19.7% – that is an extremely impressive number given the fact that Tatum played mostly SF or PF all year. If Tatum put that up in the NBA he would have ranked top-25 among all non-centers. That is a great sign for Tatum’s potential as a rebounder in the future, especially when considering that rebounding is one of the stats best known for having some correlation from college to NBA.

The second number is the CPR number which for Tatum is 15. CPR stands for College Prospect Rating which is a metric derived by Dr. Steve Shea Ph.D, the author of two books on basketball analytics. It is a metric designed to rate a college player’s NBA potential. (A full explanation of it can be found here (http://www.basketballanalyticsbook.com/2017/03/10/college-prospect-rating-cpr-version-3/).

I include this number specifically because of how much weight I would put into it, considering the excellence of both of Dr. Shea’s books (if you love basketball, I would recommend reading both), but also because Tatum’s rating of 15 which is second among this year’s class (behind Malik Monk at 18). Tatum also ranks 8th among all players in this metric over the last 6 drafts. The players ahead of him are Kevin Durant, Anthony Davis, Stephen Curry, Malik Monk, Hassan Whiteside, Kevin Love, and Blake Griffin.

The strength of this number gives me high  hopes for Tatum’s ability to find success at the next level.

Comparison and Rookie Year Projection

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A Royal Pain

Tatum’s body-type and Iso-heavy game make player comparisons rather easy to make. Carmelo Anthony is the biggest-named comparison that you might find. On the lower end, two others I have seen are Harrison Barnes and Rudy Gay. Carmelo is obviously a high bar for Tatum to clear and when it comes to projecting Tatum’s rookie seasons, Carmelo’s rookie numbers seem just as implausible. Carmelo averaged 21 points his rookie outing in Denver, but season’s like that are rare as only five rookies have done it in the last 20 years, so it is unlikely that Tatum will put similar numbers. However, Tatum has the ability to put up 16 or 17 while grabbing 7+ rebounds a game which would place him more in league with the prime of Barnes, and the second season on of Rudy Gay.

Tatum, like Josh Jackson, who I break down right here, would be an interesting fit with the Suns given his position and his skill set. Nonetheless, diving into Tatum’s numbers shows how even given the catastrophe of the Suns slipping to fourth in the draft, Jayson Tatum is one of a group of at least five players with incredibly bright NBA futures.