Josh Jackson steps to the plate, the first non-point guard to be broken down.
Jackson is the latest Kansas wing prospect to look to jump into the NBA, hoping to join Andrew Wiggins and Kelly Oubre as successful wings working their way into professional prominence. Looking at Jackson, the similarities to Oubre and Wiggins are immediately clear. Jackson is an elite athlete who has had flashes or brilliance but is certainly still developing his skills to catch up with his athleticism.
Jackson spent the year as the second option for Kansas, behind Frank Mason, and thrived in the role putting up solid scoring numbers at 16.8 per game and just under 30 per-100 possessions. Jackson struggled shooting at times, especially from mid-range but he did finish the year shooting 38% from three-point range which will be a strong number if he can continue to shoot that well in the NBA. In college Jackson averaged the best rebounding numbers of the top-5 prospects as he used his length and athleticism to hit the boards hard. This includes an 8.7% offensive rebounding rate which is pretty good for a wing. He got to the free throw line effectively as well. Jackson shined in transition situations and plays where he made off-ball cuts.
| PER | USG% | TO% | DRTG |
24.1 |
27.2
15.9
96
Many of Jackson’s advanced stats don’t explode off the page other than his rebounding numbers mentioned above. Jackson used his athleticism to put up a solid block percentage at 3.5%. The best-advanced numbers for Jackson came in the defensive category as he put up the best defensive rating of the top-5 at 96 and the best defensive win score at 2.2. Jackson’s length and athleticism let him effectively guard multiple positions well and that versatility was something Kansas relied on. Jackson should be able to grab early minutes next season based on his individual defense and ability to play off the ball and score on cuts and open shots. One worrisome sign in Jackson’s numbers was the turnover rate of 15.9% meaning he turned the ball over on about 16% of his possessions. That, coupled with the fact that he had the lowest offensive rating of the group, indicates that Jackson likely isn’t ready to shoulder a heavy scoring burden yet as he needs to hone his skills first.
Comparison and Rookie Year Projection
Jackson’s build and college team makes Andrew Wiggins an easy comparison, also Kawhi Leonard is a name that seems to pop up frequently and is an excellent model for Jackson to strive for. Both Wiggins and Leonard came in as athletic and defensively-skilled players who still needed to hone their offensive games. Kawhi has been able to develop into superstardom and turned into the best two-way player in the league, while Wiggins has had growing pains but is coming along nicely as a versatile scorer and defensive stalwart.
Jackson’s per-100 possession numbers look to be a perfect combination of Kawhi and Wiggins, with Jackson gets to the line like Wiggins, but pretty much doing everything else at a similar rate and efficiency as Kawhi did. Jackson does record assists more often than both Wiggins and Kawhi but his turnover rate is worse than both of them as well. With respect to Jackson’s role, he can likely put up a line similar to Wiggins with 12-14 points per game (Wiggins had 17) and 3.5 assists with 5 rebounds.
Jackson’s positional versatility sets him up so that he will likely play big minutes immediately wherever he is drafted. He could provide solid wing defensive help to the Suns given their loss of P.J. Tucker this season, while also learning from Dudley and T.J. Warren on some of their abilities to hunt shots and be active off the ball. The Suns would also allow him to not be in a position where he would not have to shoulder the scoring load, something that he should avoid before his skills are completely developed.