The NBA lottery will take place on Thursday and the Phoenix Suns have the 10th best odds. Here is a breakdown of how it works.
The Phoenix Suns will participate in their 10th straight lottery on Thursday. Caris LeVert almost ended that streak on their behalf, but instead, they will find themselves in the all-too-familiar position of watching ping-pong balls decide the future of their franchise.
When is the NBA Lottery?
The NBA Draft Lottery was originally supposed to take place on May 19, 2020, but due to viral chaos, the NBA rescheduled it to August 25th. Then, because I don’t know why, they changed its date once again to Thursday, August 20th at 5:30 p.m. Arizona time.
It will be broadcasted on ESPN and its app after much delay and discussion from their talking heads.
How does the lottery work?
A few years ago, the NBA slightly modified to the format in an effort to curb tanking. Now, the three worst teams (Warriors, Cavaliers, Timberwolves) will all get equal odds of landing the top pick (14 percent) and the worst team (Warriors) are guaranteed not to drop below the 5th pick.
The rest of the teams’ odds are spread out relatively equally, with the Memphis Grizzlies who flubbed their playoff hopes in the bubble, having the worst chance of landing in the top spot (0.5 percent).
Regardless, teams with lower odds still have a chance of upgrading to the top four, so it isn’t #1 or bust, however, the top 4 are the only spots available for upgrade.
What are the Phoenix Suns lottery odds?
The Phoenix Suns have the 10th-best odds, meaning the #10 is their most likely landing spot with a 65.9 percent chance.
They have a 3 percent chance of nabbing the #1 overall pick, a 3.3 percent of getting #2, 3.6 percent for #3, and 4 percent for grabbing the #4. Collectively, they have a 13.9 percent chance of upgrading to the top 4.
Because the top four spots are the only upgradable positions, it is impossible for the Suns to move up to 5, 6, 7, 8, or 9. They can, however, downgrade.
If teams behind the Suns get a bump, they will drop. They have a 19 percent chance of dropping to #11, and a 1.2 percent chance of dropping to #12. It is mathematically possible for them to drop to #13 and #14, but there is a better chance of Robert Sarver gifting the Suns to you for free than that happening.
To recap, the Suns will most likely get the #10 or #11 pick, but there’s a puncher’s chance they get lucky and move up into the top 4.
James Jones will represent the Phoenix Suns on Thursday, so put on your lucky shirt, and grab your lucky charm. May the ping-pong balls be in your favor.