Future first round picks might be untouchable

Phoenix Suns fans have dreamed up a number of trade scenarios for this offseason, many including future first round picks in those packages, including the Suns’ own 2019 and Miami’s unprotected pick in 2021. However, those two might prove to be untouchable.

When speaking to the media on Sunday June 10, Phoenix Suns General Manager Ryan McDonough was asked about the potential to trade any of his future picks in packages this offseason.

By stating that it would take “a lot” to trade two of those in particular, we can presume that he covets them about as highly as players such as Devin Booker and Josh Jackson – a good point of view to have.

Phoenix Suns

First round picks, especially those that might land in the lottery, are about as good as gold in the NBA. The hope for the potential prospect that might be found with that selection – essentially free  talent – is a very enticing thing to have on stash and in hand. Ryan McDonough has accumulated a number of such picks over the past couple of years that are starting to come due this summer, and will have the opportunity to either use them to find valuable established talent already in the league, or use them for exactly what they are intended: drafting a player out of college.

And yet, this has been the summer of speculation for the Phoenix Suns. Not only have fans been hopeful that a trade back into the high-to-mid lottery might be a possibility after drafting first overall, but also possibly trading for star talent that can help them win right away as well.

The wealth and value of those future first round picks have been added to speculative trades and often enough are presumed to be deal-breakers in a trade for top talent one way or the other.

At the moment, not only do the Suns have their own first round picks in perpetuity (picks that could very well be in the lottery for at least the 2019 draft but also potentially even farther into the future if things do not develop as quickly as hoped), but also the Miami Heat’s 16th overall selection in 2018, the Milwaukee Bucks’ first round pick which can be transferred beginning in 2019 (protected 1-3 and 17-30 in ’19, then 1-7 in ’20, and finally fully unprotected in ’21), as well as Miami’s unprotected first round selection in 2021.

For right now, the Suns’ own picks seem to be appreciatively valuable in the short-term (although his statement could be entirely meant to bump up the public intrinsic value if he actually does expect the team to make a playoff run this coming season), and therefore in his mind should be held onto until the roster is one that can compete for (at minimum) SemiFinals appearances for a foreseeable future.

The Milwaukee pick in an interesting one because if the Bucks slip in the standings then it will be fully unprotected in two seasons. However, while it could be had in 2019 if it is somewhere between 4-16, it is fair to assume that it will be somewhere outside of the lottery for the foreseeable future with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Mike Budenholzer running the show. So even if it might become fully unprotected in the future, unless something entirely unexpected and unforeseen happens, it’ll be a mid-first round pick at worst.

Finally, the 2021 unprotected Miami Heat pick is the other one that McDonough specifically mentioned as being difficult to move at the moment, and rightfully so.

The Miami Heat are not currently on the upswing. Their star talent is either aging (Dwyane Wade is currently 36, Goran Dragic is 31), or potentially on their way out, Hasaan Whiteside, and no first or second round picks in 2018 to help stockpile young, inexpensive talent. Plus, while the Heat are in the predominately weak Eastern Conference and managed to snag the 6th seed in the playoffs in 2018, a simple slide in talent with no free star free agents or trade acquisitions to bolster the roster and Miami will drop in the standings much like Brooklyn did the past couple of years making their draft pick extra valuable to the Boston Celtics.

That Brooklyn/Boston scenario is certainly playing heavily in McDonough’s mind. Patience could be key with that pick for Phoenix, and if the Heat do not take a step forward over the next three seasons, the position of that pick could loom very large for the Suns, especially if it appears to be one near the very top of the lottery, and the Suns are already in a position to win in which cheap first-year talent might cement them as a perennial league power.

Certainly at the moment that is a hyperbolic statement, but the outcome that both the Boston Celtics of today and the Phoenix Suns of 2021 are hoping for.

In the end, for all of the speculation of trades that fans have thrown out and that might be found on websites all across the inter-web, those that include Phoenix’s own 2019 first round pick and the Miami Heat’s first round pick of 2021 might be entirely imaginary as McDonough may not have any interest in trading either one.

Next: Could the Phoenix Suns trade with the Sacramento Kings?

That being said, that isn’t all that bad of a plan. The Golden State Warriors aren’t going anywhere soon and McDonough trusts his evaluation process to find viable NBA talent in the draft. Not only does he count on his ability to make the best possible selections, but he also expects those picks to hold trade value that might only become more valuable at the time of each draft rather than this far out.

Stating that those picks will be held onto for now means that McDonough is not trying to rush the process of the rebuild and wants to wait until the absolute right player(s) are available through trade, or the pick(s) are high enough to (nearly) guarantee an impact player right away.

With this in mind, this summer it appears that those two picks are untouchable.