T.J. Warren’s future must be in Phoenix

Twice I have projected that T.J. Warren will be the NBA’s Most Improved Player of the Year believing that he would have enough of a breakout season to warrant such an accolade.

Last season injuries derailed what easily could have been the year for him to pull off the feat, while this season his stats have not spiked enough, in my opinion, to garner the necessary national support.

That is not to say that a statline of 19.5p/5.1r/1.4a and a 49/7% FG% in 59 starts isn’t impressive. It is actually very  impressive for the fourth year player, and part of a continuing offensive growth that I do believe will lead him to become a 20ppg player for several years in the peak of his prime (still a potential for this season, although by next season I have no doubt).

Phoenix Suns

However, while he is the team’s regular starting small forward this season, Josh Jackson is looming in the shadows currently coming off the bench, potentially showing an array of skills that will not only supplant Warren as the team’s starter in the near term, but potentially make him a star – if not superstar  – for many years to come.

If Eddie Johnson’s regular comparisons of Josh Jackson to Clyde Drexler come even remotely close to accuracy, then the Suns will have absolutely nailed their 2017 first round selection.

With Jackson’s apparent rise to stardom, where does this place T.J. Warren in the Suns’ rotational equation moving forward?

With Jackson on the roster, Warren becomes somewhat of a luxury. His contract extension kicks in beginning next season where his salary will nearly triple, although based on his current statistical output and continued projected rise, that is still a bargain, especially for an efficient near-20 point scorer.

Teams will undoubtedly look to acquire Warren because of that very fact, and the Suns can potentially get solid value in return, be it with draft picks, a young player at a position of need, depth in the form multiple veterans, or part of a package for either a superstar or to move up in the draft. However Suns General Manager Ryan McDonough might want to work it, Warren is the perfect piece to move in the help to augment the roster for many years to come.

For a currently good team looking to add that next piece of scoring depth on their roster, a player like T.J. Warren can help put them over the top, whether it be into the playoffs or in Conference or championship contention, becoming that third or fourth core piece, he can be a part of playoff runs for many years.

His age (24) and contract length (his extension is for four year) locks him up for the first part of his prime too spiking his trade value due to the possibility of he being an important piece to another team’s core for a long time.

At this moment, the Phoenix Suns are not a team ready to make deep playoff runs over the course of several years. On pace to lose well over 50 games for the third year in a row, they are, of course, still rebuilding and can only dream of such postseason opportunities.

Yet, are they that far off?

Could the Suns only be one offseason away from finally breaking through, adding the necessary pieces around Devin Booker to at least break into the playoff scramble and then soon enough make runs at Conference and Association titles?

If so, is T.J. Warren the kind of piece that at some point over the next few years they Ryan McDonough would be looking to acquire, the one piece missing in their championship aspirations, similar to those kinds of teams that I referenced above?

If so, is that piece already on the roster  in the form of T.J. Warren?

The answer is, yes.

It fortunately does not appear that, while they are losing a lot right now, they are that far off from at least playoff contention. With a centerpiece in Booker and a rising star in Jackson, the Suns are already in a better position than most currently non-playoff teams. Having a scorer like Warren, one who quietly goes about his work without complaint game in and game out, someone who is still so young, can be a part of the future and a key piece in championship runs, for many years to come.

Great teams in the NBA need at least three stars. But they need depth as well, and with a fourth legitimate scoring option on the roster they become much more intimidating and difficult to defend.

The Suns currently have one of those players without question in Devin Booker. Josh Jackson does not appear to be that far off from becoming that player as well (it is possible that he too is a 20 point scorer as early as next season). Depending on who they draft this summer, based on their likely top-5 position, that player has the chance of being a star in this league – particularly, in my opinion, if they are fortunate enough to land DeAndre Ayton.

Of course there is trade and free agency as a means of upgrading the roster. Although unlikely, Kawhi Leonard might be available. Aaron Gordon could potentially be had – another 20 point scorer. Clint Capela isn’t a 20 points per game guy, but his defensive attributes plus his ability to score around the basket would make him an invaluable piece potentially making him a solid core piece in the future should he be signed.

All that being said, if the Suns are going to be competitive in the future, having three very good-to-superstar players as the center of the core is nice, but having that fourth scorer – especially coming off of the bench – is a helluva lot better.

While Warren might never win the league’s Most Improved Player of the Year award, he certainly can win Sixth Man of the Year, and depending on his consistency, do so more than once.

If he is a 20 points and 5 boards per game player as a starter, imagine his effectiveness when playing more regularly against the opponent’s reserves. If Devin Booker, Josh Jackson, and a third acquired star were all figureheads in the starting lineup building a lead, imagine having Warren coming off the bench to expand upon that lead and put games away early enough to rest the starters, at least occasionally, ala the Golden State Warriors.

I have long believed that T.J. Warren is a very good player, comparing him since day one to Cedric Ceballos. Ceballos, on those early-90’s Suns teams, was a point-a-minute scorer, mainly of the bench, giving the Suns a starter in a reserve role – exactly what good teams with solid depth need.

While growth into a championship-competing team is likely not going to happen over night (although it did for the 1988-89 Suns), there is a legitimate possibility that Phoenix is a playoff team next season with one more good draft pick this summer and the acquisition (through trade or free agency) of at least one more good-to-star player.

Even if Josh Jackson’s future with Phoenix is to be as a starter, T.J. Warren’s future in Phoenix should not be cut short. Instead, Warren should become the franchise’s newest starter off the bench, a lethal scoring option that backs up the starter’s play giving opponents without equivalent depth, issues.

Next: Valley of the Suns 2018 Mock Draft 1.0

It may be very difficult to pull this off as Warren will likely become a centerpiece asset in trade discussions this summer in McDonough’s attempts at acquiring other team’s stars. However, I believe that it is possible to make a move without adding Warren into the package, keeping this vision of formidable depth that would make the Suns ultra-competitive.

Without a doubt in my mind, T.J. Warren’s future must be with the Phoenix Suns.