Remember how hot T.J. Warren started last season? Within the first three weeks Warren had his name brought up as a candidate for Most Improved Player of the Year.
Jumping at the opportunity to anoint him as such, I was one of the first last year to call him a Player of the Year favorite, which, prior to his mysterious head injury, seemed almost like he was a shoe in for the award. Through his first 11 games, Warren averaged 20.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, 2.1 steals, 1.2 assists, and while his 27.3% 3-point shooting average left much to be desired, his 47.4% from the field percentage is not bad for a wing averaging 17.3 shots per game as he was.
After the injury, he was very slow coming back to form and for a long stretch was miserably inconsistent. But by the end of February his game returned to him and in several categories he actually got better. Over his final 22 games, Warren averaged 17.6 points, 7.7 rebounds, 1.1 steals, 1.5 assists, and shot a staggeringly efficient 7.6-13.6 from the field for 56.0% even upping his outside game average to a more respectable 32.0% from three (although with fewer attempts than earlier in the season).
Overall his 2016-17 season averages were nice, but with a total of 16 missed games and a stretch of 31 others in the middle where he could neither be considered consistent nor counted on, he fell out of the M.I.P. race and was never able to pull himself back in.
Phoenix Suns
However, should he have a 17-18 season with averages paralleled either to his season opening or season closing stretches, there is every reason for him to be considered an M.I.P. candidate once again.
Prior to the start of last season, Warren earned himself a spot in the Suns’ starting rotation. P.J. Tucker had back surgery in the offseason and even though he was physically ready when the season began, but by that point Warren had supplanted himself in Tucker’s spot, never to relinquish it. Warren then played so well, especially to end the season, thus cementing his spot in the starting rotation to start the season, even with Phoenix selecting Josh Jackson fourth overall in 2018.
Now, there is certainly the chance that the two do start with one another a lot, as evidenced by the team’s first two preseason games. But odds are that Head Coach Earl Watson will be forced to play bigger lineups as the two will struggle to carry the rebounding load lost.
That being said, Warren will still receive his minutes – he averaged 31.0 over the season and 33.9 over his final 26 starts – regardless of Jackson’s position on the roster for the simple fact that he is an efficient scorer. I have personally long compared him to Cedric Ceballos, who led the league in field goal percentage in 1992-93, as the two are very similar in style and play. Both are slashers who seem to know better than others as to how to get to the hoop, and neither are/were very adept at shooting the three.
Basketball-reference.com currently has a per-36 minute projection of every player in the league, offering a statistical prediction for the 17-18 season. Without breaking it down stat-for-stat, they have Warren projected at almost identical stats per-36 this season as last.
I just do not buy it. Not only was he hurt early on which seemed to effect his game for the heart of the season, but it doesn’t truly take into account a step up in his game, a pattern which has been apparent and obvious each season of his career to date.
What they do project that not only makes a lot of sense but actually bolsters (at least) his scoring averages, is that they still do project Warren to shoot 50.7% from the field on 7.2-14.2 from the field (again, per-36). That projection falls in line with his shooting over the final 22 games of the season where, as mentioned above, he shot 56.0% from the field on 7.6-13.6 shooting.
But where I find this statistical projection to be lacking is that he will be a focal point in the offense when and will likely take more shots than just 13.6 per-36. Aside from Devin Booker and Eric Bledsoe, no one else on the roster is yet to show that they have the ability to shoot and score with impunity. If Warren were to take the near 18 attempts that he averaged per game to start the season (which occurred with both Bledsoe and Booker healthy), then there is no doubt that he can push his scoring average to about 20 points. He would have an even greater opportunity to score in the unlikely though still legitimate chance that Eric Bledsoe is traded at some point. With Bledsoe gone, the top two offensive weights will be on he and Booker.
He too averaged 7.7 rebounds per game over his final 22 games, mainly because of Tyson Chandler’s season-ending benching. Chandler will be here, although potentially coming off the bench based on early preseason rotations, and while Alex Len has been dominating the boards so far in 2017, Alan Williams will not be back for many months, and there is a chance that he will miss the entire season himself.
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Plus, a trade of Tyson and not an acquisition of Jahlil Okafor, and even though Josh Jackson will be expected to grab a few caroms himself to help lighten Warren’s load, there is no reason to believe that Warren can’t average those rebounding numbers throughout the year, if not more.
My personal projection is this: 20.0 points, 53.0% from the field, 8.5 rebounds, 1.5 assists.
Those statistics, which would each be career-highs, combined, would place T.J. Warren squarely in the sights of most Improved Player of the Year, and in this preseason prediction, will earn him that award, the fourth in franchise history, and the first since Goran Dragic in 2013-14.