Phoenix Suns: T.J. Warren’s ceiling is DeMar DeRozan
Phoenix Suns’ small forward T.J. Warren is showing a similar developmental path like that of shooting guard DeMar DeRozan‘s, which should excite Suns’ fans.
In an NBA that emphasizes the 3-point shot, there are very few perimeter players that embrace the mid-range jump shot. Phoenix Suns‘ small forward T.J. Warren is one of the few wing players that makes a living inside the 3-point line. In his fourth season, Warren’s having a career year and his showing a very similar developmental path to that of old school mid-range shooter DeMar DeRozan of the Toronto Raptors. Warren needs to continue to develop, but if he does, then the Suns have something special in Warren.
Currently, DeRozan leads the NBA in shots made per game within the 15-19 foot range and Warren ranks 21st. However, shots made per game within the 10-14 foot range DeRozan is ranked second and Warren is tied for fourth. Comparing DeRozan to Warren now seems unfair to the Suns’ small forward considering DeRozan has several more seasons of experience than Warren.
| Rk | Player | Season | Age | G | GS | MP | FG% | 3P% | 2P% | eFG% | FT% | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DeMar DeRozan | 2012-13 | 23 | 82 | 82 | 36.7 | .445 | .283 | .463 | .459 | .831 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 18.1 |
| 2 | T.J. Warren | 2017-18 | 24 | 37 | 37 | 31.9 | .482 | .175 | .514 | .490 | .767 | 5.7 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 19.2 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/30/2017.
There are definitely some similarities between both players’ fourth season. Granted there are going to be differences in comparing a shooting guard and small forward, but this is a positive sign for Warren’s development. Going further into shooting stats for the two wing player reveals some positives for Warren and several things he needs to work on.
Warren’s mid-range game has the potential to be lethal, but as seen below he needs to diversify his shooting spots.
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/30/2017.
Warren’s a good mid-range shooter, however there is a reason why DeRozan is his better.
| 2-Pt | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % of | % of | % of | % of | % of | % of | FG% | FG% | FG% | FG% | FG% | FG% | ||||||||
| Season | Age | Tm | G | MP | FG% | Dist. | 2P | 0-3 | 3-10 | 10-16 | 16 <3 | 3P | 2P | 0-3 | 3-10 | 10-16 | 16 <3 | 3P | %Ast’d |
| 2012-13 | 23 | TOR | 82 | 3013 | .445 | 13.0 | .903 | .202 | .149 | .187 | .365 | .097 | .463 | .659 | .404 | .391 | .414 | .283 | .527 |
| 2017-18 | 28 | TOR | 33 | 1134 | .477 | 12.3 | .839 | .172 | .163 | .299 | .182 | .161 | .507 | .667 | .511 | .477 | .429 | .323 | .233 |
| Career | 628 | 21409 | .448 | 12.3 | .904 | .217 | .171 | .201 | .313 | .096 | .466 | .640 | .443 | .429 | .381 | .285 | .422 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/30/2017.
Warren’s shot selection inside the arc shows that if he truly wants to become a mid-range master, then he’s going to have to expand his mid-range shot like DeRozan has over his career. Most of Warren’s shots come within the 0-3 foot range of the basket, where as the DeRozan’s comes from between 16 feet out to the 3-point line. Warren has to stretch his mid-range shot and move away from the basketball, if he wants to have a sustainable career.
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It’s pretty evident that Warren’s never going to be a proficient 3-point shooter and as he gets more seasons under his belt it will be harder for him to finish close to the basket. That is why Warren needs to expand his mid-range shot, he has the percentages to mimic DeRozan’s mid-range shot selection. Besides bringing the majority of his shots outside of the paint, Warren will need to learn how to create his own shot like DeRozan does. If Warren can create his own shot consistently and keep his shooting percentages up, then he and the Suns will be set up for long term success. Further developing his mid-range shot now will help Warren preserve his body for the future.
Next: Phoenix Suns: Warren’s having a better season than Wiggins
Warren has the potential to be a mid-range master like DeRozan. Warren still has a lot of work to put in if he wants to be an elite mid-range player, but it’s a goal within his reach. If he does reach that goal, then he and Devin Booker could be a killer one-two punch for the Phoenix Suns for years to come.