Phoenix Suns: NBA Draft Lottery Reform, has “Tanking” been fixed?
This week the NBA passed a lottery reform package to try and fix tanking. How well did they do and did this actually hurt the Phoenix Suns?
The NBA board of governors convened their annual meeting in order to vote on various proposals for rule changes. The biggest rule change proposal was draft lottery reform. Ever since the Philadelphia 76ers launched their grand experiment led by former general manager Sam Hinkie, which had the team publicly bottoming out in order to secure top picks and acquire a star.
The concept of “tanking” has assumed the spotlight right next to the league champion. More and more teams with no hope to make the playoffs are opting to lose on purpose with it be through poor roster construction or having star sit out due to “injuries”, for example, Eric Bledsoe. This has all been in the pursuit to gain the best odds at acquiring a top draft pick through the lottery.
The NBA has gone through a variety of proposals to fix this problem and dis-incentivize tanking, but no such proposals have passed until now. The new changes makes stark changes to the lottery including what percentage chance each team is given of winning the lottery and how many of the spots are random. The new rules makes it so the top four spots are drawn and then the order is reverse standings from there, it was previously only the top three spots that were randomly drawn. The changes to the percentages are listed in the table below:
| Team | Odds for #1 Old | Odds for #1 New | Difference |
| 1 | 25.00% | 14.00% | -11.00% |
| 2 | 19.90% | 14.00% | -5.90% |
| 3 | 15.60% | 14.00% | -1.60% |
| 4 | 11.90% | 12.50% | 0.60% |
| 5 | 8.80% | 10.50% | 1.70% |
| 6 | 6.30% | 9.00% | 2.70% |
| 7 | 4.30% | 7.50% | 3.20% |
| 8 | 2.80% | 6.00% | 3.20% |
| 9 | 1.70% | 4.50% | 2.80% |
| 10 | 1.10% | 3.00% | 1.90% |
| 11 | 0.80% | 2.00% | 1.20% |
| 12 | 0.70% | 1.50% | 0.80% |
| 13 | 0.60% | 1.00% | 0.40% |
| 14 | 0.50% | 0.50% | 0.00% |
It is pretty clear from the percent changes that the top three spots are no longer nearly as valuable as before, especially the top spot. This balancing of the percentages led Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey to tweet at Hinkie “tanking is solved”. His quick reaction is about 50 percent correct. The changes to taking away the overwhelming incentive for teams with no chance of competing to race to the bottom which is the most pronounced form of tanking, but certainly isn’t tanking’s only form.
Phoenix Suns
The changes to the system will cause a newer more subtle form of tanking to erupt and that is the middle of the pack tanking. Spots six through ten saw percentage increases from 1.9-3.2 percent which are huge jumps and make falling in those spots much more profitable. This will likely cause many teams in the seven through twelve areas of the standings to certainly consider tanking in the post all-star stretch run in order to secure a strong chance at a top draft pick. Teams like the Miami Heat and Denver Nuggets who last year fought tooth and nail for the playoffs and ended up being just outside.
Under this new system, they would be incentivized to just give up and even sit a couple starters in order to vie for a much higher pick. The opportunity to finish eighth and get swept by the likes of the Golden State Warriors or Cleveland Cavaliers isn’t much too enticing when a three to six game losing streak could fault you into the conversation for the number one pick. Another way this will rear its head is if a fringe playoff team loses its best player or second best player late in the season to injury, instead of continuing to fight for a playoff spot in hopes the star returns. Now it’s in their best interest to pack it in and shut one or two guys down and try to position themselves to add another star.
What this means for the Phoenix Suns
These changes should fit with the Phoenix Suns’ timeline, but also could hurt the Suns in the short term. Given the strengthening of the Western Conference, the Suns are in a precarious position. These new rules make it so the bottom three in the standings aren’t in a strong position draft wise as they have been in the past and the Suns will be fighting hard to stay out of those bottom three spots.
The middle spots are the better position to be in if looking at future picks. If the Suns want to make a move for the playoffs, then these rules could help if the Suns can fight for position and be on the cusp of the playoffs around March. This is because, that is when teams will begin to tank and so the Suns could find a way to fault from eleventh or twelfth spot to the eighth if they play their cards right.
Either way, it will certainly change the Suns’ calculus for the 2018-2019 season, the rule change will have its first effect on the ’19 draft. The Suns will have to decide how to handle next season based on the results of this season. It might mean the Suns will play for development again this season and be okay falling in the bottom three, if that means they can position themselves better to consistently improve year over year from here on.
Next: Phoenix Suns: Potential position battles in training camp
The changes to the system are a strong first attempt to fix the broken elements of the NBA. However, the “fix” is merely applying a band-aid to a broken leg. Tanking was born of understanding the economics behind winning and losing, along with the best ways to build a championship team. These changes do nothing to alter that calculus, but instead just shift where the focus of the analysis and tanking will be. Given the zero-sum game of the lottery and how any change up or down in one percentage has to be balanced by an equal change in the opposite direction. The most messing with the lottery this way does is change how teams tank, it’s incapable of actually stopping tanking.