Cons of the proposed NBA Draft Lottery reform

According to Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN, the NBA hopes to change the draft lottery rules to deter tanking. These changes are bad for the Phoenix Suns and the entire league.

The proposed rules would even out the lottery odds at the top of the draft, thereby increasing the chances of better teams moving up and worse teams moving down. For example, the top three teams in the lottery would have equal odds at getting the No. 1 pick, while the fourth and fifth teams would have only slightly lower odds.

The rules would also allow teams to drop one additional spot in the lottery. For instance, for the team with the worst record and thus currently the best odds of landing the first overall pick, instead of only being able to drop to No. 4 in the draft, they could drop to No. 5. Though not part of the proposal, there is also support for the idea that no team could pick in the top-three two years in a row. The Lakers, Celtics, and 76ers did so each of the last two years.

As interesting as this proposal is, I’m not so sure it is a good idea. Yes, there is a tanking problem in the NBA, but not every bad team is bad because it tanks. Some are there simply because they are really that bad of a team. Look at the 2016-17 Brooklyn Nets. They were just awful. They had no incentive to tank, and we know that because they didn’t even own the rights to their own draft pick. Changing the rules to even out lottery odds will hurt all teams going through a rough patch, whether they tank or not. It will especially hurt those that depend on developing through the draft.

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Teams already tank at their own risk because of the current lottery system. Just look at our very own 2016-17 Phoenix Suns. They tanked pretty hard by sitting Eric Bledsoe, Brandon Knight, and Tyson Chandler for the last couple months of the season. The Lakers, on the other hand, still played their starters until late in the season even though they risked losing their pick if it wasn’t in the top-three. By only playing young prospects, the Suns passed the Lakers for the second worst record in the league. In the end, however, Phoenix fell to the fourth pick in the draft while the Lakers jumped up to the second.

It was almost like the league was punishing the Suns.

Was it worth it for the Suns just because they fell from No. 2 to No. 4? Yes, of course it was! If they had been No. 3, they could have fallen to No. 5 or No. 6. They might have missed out on a future All-Star in Josh Jackson. The NBA draft is generally very top heavy and top picks are extremely valuable. As long as there’s any chance at getting a better pick, teams will be tempted to tank.

In fact, evening out the odds might increase the incentive to tank, because then a team with the 11th worst record will realize they actually have a chance at getting a top-three pick. We know some teams even lower in the lottery will often tank just to get in the top ten. Dallas Mavericks’ owner Mark Cuban admitted his team tanked after they were eliminated from playoff contention, even though they were relatively competitive for much of the season. If they were willing to tank for the ninth pick in the draft, wouldn’t they be willing to tank harder for an increased shot at a top-five pick? My guess is yes, and I’m sure many other teams would as well.

It’s hard to say exactly how these rules would impact the Suns. I do know how frustrated I was when the Suns dropped two spots in this year’s lottery. With the new rules, that drop would have been even more likely and the Suns could have dropped even further. Perhaps it was deserved, but I’m not sure I see anything inherently wrong with a bad team wanting to play its young players toward the end of the season. A lot was learned about guys like Tyler Ulis and Alan Williams that will be incredibly useful for the future. There is also justification in wanting to preserve an injury-prone Bledsoe and see what Alex Len is worth in a contract year.

What does worry me is that the Suns have generally been a team that has developed through the draft and through trades. Phoenix does not attract many big free agents. They signed Steve Nash, but he had originally been drafted by the franchise. Shawn Marion and Amar’e Stoudemire were both homegrown. Dan Majerle, Larry Nance, Walter Davis, Alvan Adams, and Dick Van Arsdale (through the expansion draft) were as well. Some of their other best players were acquired through trade, including Charles Barkley, Kevin Johnson, Paul Westphal, and Jason Kidd. Most of the players used to acquire them, however, started their NBA careers with the Suns (Larry Nance, Jeff Hornacek, Michael Finley, etc.). Tom Chambers too was a free agent signing, but there aren’t many other big ones.

This has certainly been the case lately with the current young core. Developing these prospects will probably be the focus for the next couple of years. Unless they make a big trade, the Suns will likely have a high pick again next year, possibly top-3. If the proposed rules were in effect, Phoenix would risk losing out on a third star prospect to go along with Devin Booker and Josh Jackson.

Next: Pros of the proposed NBA Draft Lottery reform

If the proposed rules were in effect in 2017, they would’ve have lower odds at obtaining the top pick and increased odds at dropping outside the top-five (which was impossible this year). They would have missed out on one of the top-tier prospects.

The league could approve these rules by 2019. If the current timeline doesn’t go as planned, that scenario could become a reality before you know it.

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