With Alan Williams back, Alex Len’s time is soon

Now that Alan Williams has re-signed with the Phoenix Suns for three years and $17M, the Suns still have one additional loose thread still floating around in the free agent market, Alex Len.

Although it was reported that Alan Williams had immediate interest on the free agent market from the New York Knicks, there has literally been no such public interest in Alex Len. The reason for this is uncertain, although, the fact that he is a restricted free agent and was not in the top tier of available free agents probably has dampened the rest of the league’s enthusiasm early in the free agency process.

That being said, now that all of the big, expensive pieces have fallen into place around the league – and some of the secondary pieces like Alan Williams and Tim Hardaway Jr. as well – a team or two may now finally begin to publicly kick the tires on Alex Len.

Although I would bet that any significant movement is very unlikely.

Teams are now beginning to better understand what their cap situations will look like next season and will be even more hesitant to shell out the kind of money that it would take for the Suns to decide not to match their offer. Although Suns General Manager Ryan McDonough hasn’t necessarily said this, it would seem hard to believe that if a team offers a multi-year contract at under $8M a year, Phoenix will match. Even though Len isn’t the double-double machine that many fans hoped he would be when drafted fifth overall in 2013, he is an agile and serviceable center with up-side, and at that price would be a bargain compared to other contracts that have recently been signed – regardless of position.

If a team were to offer over $8M (and in all legitimacy, that base projected number could be higher as some have speculated that a team would offer him upwards of $12M) then the Suns might very well decline to match the offer.

However, for the very reason that the Suns would allow Len to walk by not matching a contract offer, so is the likelihood of no teams ever actually offering that kind of a contract, thus raising the odds in the favor of Len remaining with the Suns.

If this comes to pass and Len is not offered a contract elsewhere, there is almost no chance that McDonough and Len do not meet with the hope of coming to an agreement on a multi-year deal to remain in Phoenix.

To get to this point in the free agency period without having Len re-signed, both parties likely wanted to see what would happen with Alan Williams first. Len and his people probably wanted to know what Williams was going to make so they could make their offer accordingly. The Suns likely wanted to wait to sign Williams first as well to better understand what space they have under the cap to re-sign Len, which would also then give them a hard number on what they would decide to or not to match from another team.

As the Williams signing has now happened, from Len’s perspective, although he will probably be looking to earn less than he would have hoped, the ability to get the safety of another three or four years under contract, especially if his skills never take that next step, would be difficult to pass up. Taking into consideration that Alan Williams will receive an average of just under $6M a year, Len’s top-five draft status alone – regardless of his statistical averages – will demand that he makes above that point, probably in the aforementioned $8M range, if not a little higher.

(Remember too, while his per game averages were less to be desired, per-36 last season, Len averaged 14.1 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks – one of five centers in the league with at least those averages per-36 who played in a minimum 31 games. Had he been able to stay out of foul trouble, Len likely would have garnered the minutes needed to boost his per game averages to the kind of basketball card numbers that we look for.)

If Phoenix is able (and willing) to move Tyson Chandler and leave the starting and backup center duties to Alex Len and Alan Williams, then Len will finally be given a full season to have the starting job and see how far he can take it. For his sake, he has yet to have had that opportunity and it may be the kind of mental boost that he needs to take his game to the next level.

But even if Chandler remains on the roster and the presumptive starter, or even if Len fails to materialize into an above average center, there is still a role for him in the NBA and there will be plenty of teams who (at the projected $8M a year contract) would take him via trade at some point in the future.

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Therefore, from the Suns’ perspective, signing Alex Len is only the logical next step in the forming of the 2017-18 roster. Even if he doesn’t pan out this year or next, he will still be a viable commodity on the trade market and at worst would be fairly easy to trade for a second round pick to clear cap space if necessary. On the same token, if he does take a step up this season and the Suns still happen to fall into the DeAndre Ayton and Mohamed Bamba sweepstakes, then trading Len for additional help on the roster, if not a future first round pick, too would be viable.

Either way, letting him go for nothing this offseason, just doesn’t make much sense.

With Alan Williams on the books, Alex Len’s re-signing may come down the pike any minute or day now and it may be only a matter of time before the Phoenix Suns announce a press conference. If so, the next step is what to do with Tyson Chandler – but we will cross that bridge when we get there.