The Suns’ Difficult Decision: Keep Len or Williams

Both Alex Len and Alan Williams are restricted free agents this offseason and with roughly 13% of the salary cap already dedicated to Tyson Chandler, can the Suns justify keeping both?

Stats this Season

Name	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Steals	Blocks	Turnovers	FG%	FT%
Alex Len	19.8	7.5	6.5	0.6	0.5	1.2	1.3	49.2%	72.2%
Alan Williams	13.7	6.9	5.6	0.5	0.6	0.8	0.7	53.2%	61.6%

Besides who to take in this summer’s draft, this will be the biggest decision the front office will make this season. Tyson Chandler will remain the starting center going into next season but the back up big man slot remains to be seen. NBA teams will value Alex Len and Alan Williams differently. Last off-season teams paid out on average $17 million for free agent centers (roughly 18.1% of teams salary caps). But there were three distinct tiers of big men that were paid:

Tier 1: Dwight Howard, Al Hordford, Hassan Whiteside, Andre Drummond

Average salary: $25,520,833 Average percentage of cap: 27.11%

Tier 2: Bismack Biyombo, Joakim Noah, Timofey Mozgov, Ian Mahinmi

Average salary: $17,000,000 Average percentage of cap: 18.06%

Tier 3: Al Jefferson, Mirza Teletovic, Darrell Arthur, Meyers Leonard, Miles Plumlee, etc.

Average salary: $10,184,000 Average percentage of cap: 10.82%

I believe it is fair to assume that neither Len or Williams are of the tier 1 group. However, an argument could be made that Len could potentially be seen by teams in the tier 2 group. He is only 23, has a developing mid-range game, and is significantly more athletic than Williams. In that sense, Len’s situation is most similar to Biyombo’s or Mahinmi’s last season. The biggest knocks on Williams is that he has only played 36 games this season and his lack of athleticism limits his potential. Williams will most certainly be seen as a tier 3 big man this off-season.

With the salary cap increasing to $102 million Len could potentially make $18,400,000 as a tier two big man and Williams would make upwards of $11,036,400. If these hypothetical valuations were to hold true which big man should the Suns keep?

There have been two narratives this season surrounding Suns big men. The first one is that Chandler needs to play less to give Len space to grow. But second is, Alan Williams is better than Len.

Chandler has not played in the last 13 games since the All-Star break and Alex Len has started every game in his absence. Although with his new opportunity Len has not flourished. In fact has slightly digressed.

Stats since the All-Star break

Name	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Steals	Blocks	Turnovers	FG%	FT%
Alex Len	20.6	7.5	6.5	0.7	0.9	0.8	1.1	45.8	66.7
Alan Williams	25.2	13.5	9.8	1.2	1	1.2	1	53.3%	64.6%

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Alan Williams on the other hand has produced significantly better under the opportunity the benching of Tyson Chandler has offered him. Head Coach Earl Watson has stated on multiple occasions that Alex Len’s effort level and proneness for foul trouble has led to the lack of minutes. With Len often finding himself unable to stay on the floor, Williams, who is a high effort work horse, is averaging about 14 points, 10 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks in only 25 minutes per game. Those are incredible numbers for a modest amount of playing time. What he is averaging post-All-Star break is on pace with his prior per-36 under limited minutes.

If the Suns are to keep Chandler as the team’s starting center next season, keeping Williams as the energy abundant backup would be the more efficient and productive option.

Per-36

Name	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Steals	Blocks
Alex Len	13.7	11.7	1.1	0.8	2.2
Alan Williams	18.1	14.7	1.2	1.5	2.1

For the Suns, the best and most economical route is to re-sign Alan Williams and let Alex Len walk. There is no need to mortgage the financial future of the Suns in a center that has not shown much development since his selection in the 2013 Draft . Ideally, this offseason signing Williams to 3 years $33.1 million would be great move for the Phoenix Suns.