Draft Watch: Should the Suns Draft Lonzo Ball?

Every other night or so, thousands of Suns fans sit in front of their laptops and televisions to let loose exaggerated sighs of agony as they watch the team of Sir Charles and Amare work through a painful period of rebuilding.

While we watch our team in agony, the team is busy watching a new crop of players with a gleam in their eye and dreams of a golden future. If only to keep our own sanity it seems appropriate to do the same from time to time.

And so we start at the top with arguably the best player in the 2017 NBA Draft: Freshman point guard for the UCLA Bruins, Lonzo Ball.

Player Comparison:

Ball is compared by NBADraft.net to former Suns guard and fellow Californian Jason Kidd. While it’s never fair to compare a 19-year old to a hall of fame player, the statistics support the comparison. While a Freshman at Cal, Kidd averaged 13 points, 7.7 assists, 4.9 rebounds, and 3.8 steals a game. As we approach halfway through the college basketball season, Ball is averaging 14.3 points, 8.7 assists, 5.9 rebounds, and 1.6 steals.

To be clear, these are not the same player. Standing at 6’6″ Ball is at least 2 inches taller than Kidd and 10 lbs lighter. Kidd shot a horrendous 28% from deep where Ball lights it up from long range at 45% for the season despite going 2-8 from three against Kentucky. Kidd used his handle to break down defenders and find open men, Ball uses his size to look over the top of the defense. Both are very good college players, but the basis of the comparison is more statistical than style or skills.

Why the Suns Would Want Him:

The Suns are rebuilding with a ton of young talent of a similar age: Devin Booker, Tyler Ulis, Dragan Bender, Alex Len, T.J. Warren and Mrquese Chriss are all under 23. There are current players, like PJ Tucker and Tyson Chandler, who won’t be here when this group develops into their prime. There are other players who will be too old to justify having on the roster then, such as the 27-year old Bledsoe or 25-year old Knight who will be in their early to mid 30’s when this group of Suns hits their prime.

The Suns need and want a young PG to compliment their current base.

Ball fits the bill in terms of age, position, and style of play. He likes to run fast and push the pace, which the Suns lead the league in. His height and skills would give the Suns a nice back court with Booker. His desire to pass first will blend in nicely when surrounded by scorers like Booker, Warren, and Chriss. His defense would help prop up where the Suns are currently getting blown past. Adding Ball fits the style and gives the Suns the right aged player to develop with the rest of the core.

It also doesn’t hurt that adding Ball gives the Suns the ability to trade Bledsoe, Knight, or both which allows them to fill future needs, like a younger center.

Why the Suns Would Not Want Him:

Ball has great height for an NBA point guard, but not good size. Like Dragan Bender, he is rail thin and can easily be pushed around by more physical defenders. Like Bender, it will take Ball years to grow into his frame and compete at an elite level. This will frustrate an impatient fan base.

Adding Ball into a back court with Booker will lead to the kind of shot selection that is the stuff of Gregg Popovich’s hell. When Ball is guarded closely, as he was in the Kentucky game earlier this game, he will tend to pull up early for needlessly deep three pointers early in the clock. Without a solid frame, he tends to take a lot of floaters, step backs, and fade away jump shots that dramatically decrease his shot percentage. A combination of Booker and Ball will be a painfully difficult exercise for a coach and will lead almost certainly to the firing of Watson who gives his players a lot of latitude to make their own decisions.

Conclusion:

Unless the lottery bounces the Suns way, Ball is likely to be gone by the time they make their selection. However, strange things happen in the draft and if the Suns get a chance, their selection will likely be between Ball, Josh Jackson, and Markelle Fultz (more on Jackson and Fultz soon).

In such a scenario, the Suns won’t find a better fit for the future they’re building towards than Lorenzo Ball.

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