With the 2016 NBA draft lottery tonight, May 17th, at 8 PM eastern, draft order will finally be set for the 1st round of the NBA draft.
The Phoenix Suns have two lottery picks, but only one shot at the top overall pick. The Wizards pick has a protection on it that limits the upside (more below).
Here is a run down of the complete 2016 NBA draft lottery top pick odds, trades, and best/worst case scenario for each team involved.
Phoenix Suns (11.9% chance at #1)
The Suns have two lottery picks: their own, and a first acquired from the Washington Wizards.
Best Case: Suns own pick jumps up to the top 2, while the Wizards pick stays #13. Suns take a forward first, and the rebuild gains serious traction.
Worst Case: The Suns pick falls to #7, which they spend on a shooting guard. The Wizards jump to #1 overall, become a juggernaut, and Markieff Morris wins finals MVP in 2018.
Teams with trades:
Philadephia 76’ers (26.9% chance at #1)
Best Case: Their own pick lands in the top 2 of the draft, giving them a top end talent, and the Lakers slide down to #4 – meaning that pick goes to the Philadelphia 76’ers as well. Note the Sixers have a trade swap with Sacramento, meaning if Sacramento wins the lottery (1.9%), the Sixers can swap picks with them.
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Worst case: This pick falls out of the top 2, and the Lakers stay in the top 3. Sixers only add one lottery player (not a game changer) and finish 6-76 in the 2016-17 season
Los Angeles Lakers (19.9% chance at #1)
Best Case: The pick lands in the top 3 (55.8%), in particular the top 2.
Worst Case: Pick lands #4, the Sixers take the pick, and the Lakers continue to be a terrible, terrible team. Actually, that sounds more like the best case senario.
Boston Celtics (15.6% chance at #1)
Best Case: This team is already living the dream. Aquired from the Brooklyn Nets, the Celtics are a playoff team potentially adding a star. Winning would be gravy, but this team should be pump.
Worst Case: Fall to 6th in the draft, add a solid player, and make another playoff run next year. Sounds pretty good for a worst case scenario.
Sacramento Kings (0% chance at #1)
Best Case: As detailed above, the Sixers can swap picks this year with the Kings. Best case is still for the Kings to jump up to #1. Even though the Sixers will swap for that pick, the Kings will get the 76’ers top 4 pick in return.
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Worst Case: Fall to #11 and convey the pick to the Chicago Bulls from an older trade (although the protections on this get tricky – notes here).
Washington Wizards (.6% chance at #1)
Best Case: The Wizards will only keep this pick if it jumps into the top 3 – otherwise it goes to Phoenix. There is a 2.2% chance of the Wiz jumping up. If they jump up and grab a star, the long shot hope of getting Kevin Durant would get a slight boost.
Worst Case: Pick doesn’t jump, Wizards lose pick, and Durant doesn’t even visit D.C. in free agency.
Denver Nuggets (6.2% chance at #1)
Best Case: This is part of a very confusing series of trades between the Nuggets, the New York Knicks, and the Toronto Raptors, detailed here. The Knicks basically made a series of bad trades, and now do not own their 1st round pick. If the Knicks jump up, the Nuggets will get the reward and the pick.
Worst Case: Because they get the better of the Knicks and their own pick (9th in the lottery), there isn’t much downside risk. Falling any further than 8th or 9th would be extremely unlucky.
Toronto Raptors (0% chance at #1)
Best Case: Although the Raptors will be happy to add a lottery player to the winningest team in franchise history, they cannot get the top pick due to the trades detailed above. Still, a top ten pick is a great addition.
Worst Case: Falling back a few spots, but they’re a very strong team already. Can’t really lose here.
Teams that didn’t trade:
It is pretty straight forward for the remaining teams: jumping into the top three is your best case, otherwise you still get a fairly good lottery pick.
Minnesota Timberwolves: 8.8% chance at #1
New Orleans Pelicans: 6.3% chance at #1
Milwaukee Bucks: 1.8% chance at #1
Orlando Magic: .8% chance at #1
Utah Jazz: .7% chance at #1
Chicago Bulls: .5% chance at #1
Next: Would Lottery Win Make Suns Competitors in 2016?
Those are all the draft trades and #1 overall pick odds for the 2016 NBA draft lottery. Now let’s see who is lucky.