Prediction No. 4: T.J. Warren averages more minutes per game than P.J. Tucker, but does not start.
I feel like I’m the on raining on everyone’s parade. T.J. Warren showed signs last year, has been impressive and has the hype train rolling for a breakout sophomore season.
That all seems very possible. However, Warren being the starter over the incumbent P.J. Tucker is something that seems better on paper than I think it might work in reality.
According to @paulcoro the Suns are playing T.J. Warren sometimes with the regular starters http://t.co/TNw8FSGNkZ
— Dave King (@DaveKingNBA) October 3, 2015
There are a few things about this. First, think about the starting lineup in context. Tyson Chandler lives on the pick-and-roll. Markieff Morris operates in the midrange and high post, if not the low post. Eric Bledsoe isn’t much of a shooter and gets points by attacking on the pick-and-roll or just driving throug guys.
Once you insert Warren, a 23 percent shooter from deep whose best scoring assets are high post floaters and post-up mismatches, there’s just too much clutter without enough spacing. Tucker’s not Kyle Korver, but the Suns can at least stick him in the corner and get reasonable scoring output with more open room inside. It just seems better.
Also, while Warren is an acceptable defender for his experience level, he can’t hound guys like Tucker does. That’s not even due to a lack of effort. It takes time to learn how to defend the greatest basketball players on earth one-on-one. Tucker has learned that and has the physical talents necessary to do it.
This clip is a good show for Tucker. He gets into Carmelo Anthony, but then gives a little room, almost like he’s daring him to shoot. When Melo does face up, Tucker reacts very quickly and gets the perfect balance of interfering without fouling.
Sir Charles In Charge
That stuff is hard to do habitually against elite players, and it only gets harder when the concepts of team defense like pick-and-roll coverage are added. That takes significant time. Guys like Markieff Morris, three years ahead of Warren, still aren’t fully skilled on it unless they are prodigious defenders.
Warren’s development is critical to the Suns’ future, though. This is why him playing more minutes overall than Tucker seems likely. He can get his confidence up by annihilating bench units with his inside game while also getting a few minutes against stars to take his lumps and learn.
The Suns could also go small with both of them. At 6’8″, Warren can match up against opposing power forwards with raw size and Tucker can match them with his physicality.
It seems better for the Suns’ short and long-term future to stagger the minutes between the two this way. Warren gets a good amount of time, but the Suns open and close with Tucker on the floor.
*Stats courtesy of NBA.com