Heading into the 2015-16 season, the Phoenix Suns have plenty of intriguing players whose development will take center stage. There’s third-year center Alex Len, who will be learning from Tyson Chandler. There’s Brandon Knight, who will be playing alongside Eric Bledsoe for the first extended period of their careers.
But after a stellar Summer League, second-year scoring stud T.J. Warren might be at the very top of the list.
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As a rookie, Warren saw limited time for most of the year. But as the Suns became desperate for offense after the All-Star break, he started to earn more minutes and displayed a real intelligence for getting to the right spots on the floor and putting the ball in the hole whenever he got near the basket.
Warren tore it up in Las Vegas, making the All-NBA Summer League First Team by averaging an impressive 18.7 points per game on 54 percent shooting. He still doesn’t have NBA three-point range, but Warren’s ability to score in the midrange and around the rim has many anticipating a breakout season in 2015-16.
And yet, when the Phoenix Suns tip off their first game for the upcoming season, it should be P.J. Tucker holding down the starting spot.
Interesting mix at SF, now. Young, promising rookie (Warren), journeyman still out to prove himself (Tucker), former All-Star (Granger)
— Matt Petersen (@TheMattPetersen) June 17, 2015
The aforementioned Granger is no longer in Phoenix, but you get the point: the battle for the starting small forward spot will be interesting next season.
There’s no question that Warren’s future with the Suns is much further into “long-term” territory than that of Tucker, who is entering the second year of a three-year contract extension he signed in 2014. Tucker’s offense leaves a lot to be desired, and at age 30, he doesn’t have a lot of room in his game left for growth.
Sir Charles In Charge
The 21-year-old Warren has a much higher ceiling as an efficient scorer, especially for a team that struggled to execute on offense last year after Goran Dragic and Isaiah Thomas were traded away. But since the Suns’ ceiling next year is a first round playoff exit, there should be no rush to bump Warren into the starting lineup until he proves he’s ready for the increased role.
Unlike years past (or, to be honest, the entire history of the franchise), the Suns have the potential to be a good defensive team next season. Eric Bledsoe is a tremendous hound on the defensive end when he’s locked in, Tucker is a solid wing defender and Tyson Chandler is a former Defensive Player of the Year.
Between Bledsoe and Knight harassing opposing backcourts, Tucker providing strength on the wing and the center duo of Chandler and Len locking down the paint, protecting the rim and pulling down rebounds, the Suns have an excellent defender for each level of the game.
Unfortunately for the still-developing Warren, Tucker is the better fit in that context.
To clarify, Warren is not a bad defender. He’s actually fairly capable of holding his own in one-on-one situations, and for a guy who knows how to get to the right spots on the offensive end, his feel for the game is far too intuitive for anyone to question whether or not he can become a passable defender (within a team defense) in time.
For all the good Warren can do on the offensive side of the ball, he still gets lost on defense way too much. #Suns
— Jeffrey Sanders (@JeSanders11) March 12, 2015
But for now, Warren is still learning on that end of the floor. With the Suns eager to end their playoff drought and avoid a franchise-worst six straight seasons without a postseason appearance, Tucker’s presence in the starting lineup gives the Suns the appropriate level of experience, grit and defense needed to help Phoenix reach the playoffs in the crowded Western Conference.
It’s not just the defensive end where Tucker has an advantage, however; he’s also a far superior three-point shooter compared to Warren at this point in their careers.
As a rookie, Warren made just five of his 21 three-point attempts (23.8 percent). He’s not capable of spreading the floor from three-point territory, and nothing we saw in Summer League should have changed anyone’s opinion on that. Tucker, on the other hand, attempted 252 three-pointers and made 34.5 percent of them last year.
Obviously 34.5 percent isn’t dead-eye accuracy by any means, but the season before, Tucker nailed 38.7 percent of his triples within a competent offense, and he evolved into a deadly corner three-point sniper to help the Suns spread the floor. With a little more stability this year, Tucker could very easily enjoy a resurgent year of sharpshooting, benefitting from open looks provided by Bledsoe and Knight’s penetration.
There’s also the issue of Tucker’s production waning when he came off the bench last year. In 63 games as a starter, Tucker averaged 9.4 points and 6.6 rebounds in 31.4 minutes per game. In 15 games coming off the bench, he put up 8.1 points and 5.9 rebounds in 27 minutes per game.
Even if he was a more efficient shooter coming off the bench, the Suns should be able to balance that discrepancy out next season with more weapons in the starting five on the offensive end.
Warren has the potential to thrive in Phoenix as an efficient scorer and the future is bright for him. But until he proves he’s ready to start over the incumbent, much like Alex Len overtook Miles Plumlee last season, there’s no reason to abandon a useful role player like Tucker who brings the defense the new-look Suns need in their starting lineup.
It’s only a matter of time before Warren overtakes his competition for the starting job, but for the time being, the Suns shouldn’t overlook what P.J. Tucker brings to the table.
Next: Expect A Breakout Season From T.J. Warren In 2015-16