Phoenix Suns Gifted Golden Opportunity In The Playoff Hunt

UPDATE: Anthony Davis is a game-time decision for tonight’s game against the Suns after rolling his ankle at this morning’s shootaround, per Paul Coro of the Arizona Republic.

For the Phoenix Suns, the magnitude of this game really cannot be overstated. The Suns were all-but finished when they lost eight out of nine games over a 24-day stretch, but thanks to some key players on other teams going down, they aren’t out of it just yet. In fact, a win would put the Suns close to being back in the drivers’ seat as far as the playoff race is concerned.

Not only would the Suns have one more game remaining against both the Thunder and the Pelicans, but the other two teams would be more than likely to rack up significant loss totals before the end of the season, thanks to difficult remaining schedules. Let’s start with the Pelicans:

More from Valley of the Suns

• Ranking the Phoenix Suns’ 5 holiday games in 2023-24
• Zion Williamson gets compared to Phoenix Suns legend
• Suns player preview: Bol Bol can be the perfect role player
• Former Suns’ guard shows he is officially done with Phoenix
• NBA insider guarantees Suns’ rival won’t make blockbuster trade

Should the Pelicans lose, they’d sit just 1.5 games ahead of the Suns, with one more game remaining between the two teams. However, the Pelicans also have to face some really strong competition, with two games remaining against Warriors and Rockets apiece, in addition to road games remaining against the Clippers, Trail Blazers and Grizzlies.

The Pelicans also still have to face the Spurs at home, and of their remaining five contests after that, three of them are on the road. It’s quite possible the Pelicans could go 5-10 (or worse) in their remaining stretch this season, which would leave them at 42-40. That record would likely not be good enough to get them into the postseason, meaning it’d be Oklahoma City or Phoenix in the eighth spot.

Oklahoma City, on the other hand, has an easier schedule, but the Thunder have been hit by the injury bug at the wrong time. As it stands right now, it appears Serge Ibaka is going to miss the rest of the regular season, and Enes Kanter was also injured in the team’s last game, as he rolled his ankle.

The Thunder are still without superstar Kevin Durant, meaning that they could very easily lose any of their next six-or-so contests with a depleted roster. Three of those games are on the road, and three of them are against playoff opponents. There’s really only one “gimme” in there, and it’s a home game against the Lakers, although for OKC, that isn’t saying much, as they’ve defeated the Lakers twice this year by a combined eight points.

After that stretch, Oklahoma City starts the last month of the season with four games against playoff teams, in Dallas, Memphis, Houston and San Antonio. The Thunder then get the Kings at home, but then have to play the Pacers (who will likely have Paul George back) on the road, before battling the Portland Trail Blazers one day later.

The Thunder then finish out their season playing their third game in four days on the road against Minnesota. A record of 5-9 or 6-10 seems quite likely if the team doesn’t get anyone back, and that would put Oklahoma City at 43 or 44 wins on the year, leaving the door open for the Suns.

The Suns have one of the toughest schedules in the NBA remaining, but they are facing off against the elite teams at the right time, if there is such a thing. After the game against the Pelicans, the Suns will square off against the Rockets, who are still without Dwight Howard, before taking on the Mavericks, who are just 5-5 in their last 10 games (and will likely be 5-6, seeing as they have a game against the Grizzlies on Friday.

Next up will be the Sacramento Kings, in a game the Suns should win, and at that point they could be as well off as 39-33 on the season, although 37 or 38 wins seems like a more realistic total.

Then the Suns will have a stretch where they face the Trail Blazers twice with the Thunder sandwiched in between. In addition to the Thunder’s injury woes, the Blazers have also faced their problems with health, as Wesley Matthews is out for the year and LaMarcus Aldridge is still banged up, although he’s been playing well as of late.

Nevertheless, the Trail Blazers have lost two games in a row, and the Suns will have the luxury of being at home for their first contest between the two teams.

If the Suns can win two-of-three in that period, they’ll be positioned to make a run over the last month, as they’ll sit at the 39-40 win mark with seven games to go, likely needing five wins to lock up a postseason berth.

In that stretch, they’ll face Golden State and Atlanta, both of whom will likely be resting players, in addition to the Utah Jazz and New Orleans Pelicans, which in a best-case scenario would result in three or four wins. That would mean the Suns would just have to win one of three against the Mavericks, Spurs and Clippers in order to reach the postseason.

Now, don’t get me wrong. I’m not saying it’s likely, or even a 50/50 shot, but the Suns still have a chance to make the playoffs, and considering what they’ve been through this year, losing four games as the buzzer, not to mention half the roster at the trade deadline, it’s kind of remarkable that they are in this position this early into the rebuild. It’s something that shouldn’t be swept aside.

Whether or not the Phoenix Suns do go on to make the playoffs, it’s absolutely crazy to think that a team that won just 25 games two years ago, with a roster of aging players such as Luis Scola and Jermaine O’Neal, has completely turned it around, winning more than 90 games in the last two seasons.

Last year the Suns tied the record for wins without a playoff spot, and this year the team seems primed to hit the 40-win mark again, with a young core that isn’t going anywhere. However, before I get too far ahead of myself, there is still a game to be played, and for the Suns, it all starts with stopping one man:

The blueprint for defeating the Brow

Anthony Davis has been on an absolute tear this season, and he’s certainly in the MVP conversation as it sits right now. Davis has posted at least 20 points and 10 rebounds in 33 of his 55 games, although he is coming off one of his least efficient outings this year, as he scored just 20 points on 6-of-18 shooting in a win against Milwaukee.

However, the fact that Davis struggled is actually a terrible omen for the Suns, despite what may seem logical.

Coming off of games where he’s missed 10-or-more shots, Davis is averaging 29.8 points and 11.8 rebounds per game. Those numbers are more than five points and one rebound per game higher than his season averages, and simply put, you don’t want to catch Davis after an inefficient game.

In fact, the Oklahoma City Thunder, who are with the Suns and the Pelicans in the race for the final playoff spot, found out about this the hard way, as Davis diced them up for 41 points and 10 rebounds, before hitting this game winner, in an earlier meeting this year:

Without Alex Len, the Suns really have two options as to how defend Davis. They can throw double teams at him all night, or they can simply let him get his, and focus on Davis’ teammates. The latter seems like the safest bet, and recent trends support the idea. In the Pelicans’ last loss, Davis went for 36 points, 14 rebounds, 7 assists and 9 blocks.

However, the rest of the team shot just 30-of-71 from the field, scoring just over 1.05 points per field goal attempt. Davis was allowed to get going, but the Pelicans as a whole struggled, leaving the Denver Nuggets as the victors.

Conversely, in the Pelicans’ last two victories, Davis has averaged just 17.5 points and 9.0 rebounds per game, while shooting 32.4% from the field. When teams try to double Davis, the role players are able to step up, thus doing more damage as a collective unit than would be done if Davis was just played straight up. It’s like Alvin Gentry once suggested as the blueprint to beat the Lakers:

“Maybe we’ll decide that we let Kobe get 80 and try to guard the other guys.”

Last time out

The Suns more than held their own in the last meeting against the Pelicans, and they nearly stole one on the road at the end. Phoenix led 98-97 with less than three minutes remaining, and the game was tied at 100 with just over 90 ticks left on the clock. However, it was a Tyreke Evans layup with less than 20 seconds left that allowed the Pelicans to pull away, as they went up four, eventually winning 110-106.

In that game, Anthony Davis had an absolute field day on the glass, recording 18 total rebounds in 42 minutes, which was not only a season high for Davis, but tied the third-highest total of rebounds he had ever recorded in a game in his career.

Tyreke Evans and Jrue Holiday chipped in with 45 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists combined, while Ryan Anderson absolutely burned the Suns on 8-of-10 shooting from the field, and 3-of-4 shooting from three. Those four combined to score more than 75% of the team’s points, while for the Suns, it was a much more balanced effort.

Eric Bledsoe led the way for the Suns, scoring 21 points, while adding eight rebounds, three assists, two steals and two blocks, while Goran Dragic chipped in a team-high 22 points, albeit on 17 field goal attempts. Gerald Green added 17 points off the bench, while the Morris Twins and P.J. Tucker each did their part, combining for 31 points on just under 50% shooting.

The loss snapped a six-game Phoenix win-streak, and it started a potentially backbreaking skid, as the Suns would go on to lose to the Thunder the following night. Phoenix would get going again, winning eight of their first ten contests to start the New Year, but it would be all downhill from there, as the Suns have gone 9-15 since that spurt.

Prediction

Without Alex Len, Anthony Davis will have a field day inside, to which the Suns will have no answer. Davis will end up with 30 points, 15 rebounds and a couple of blocks, which he has already done a few times this year.

However, a fantastic shooting performance for the Suns will keep them in the game, as Marcus Morris makes it three games in a row with 15+ points and at least two made three-point field goals. However, in the end, the Suns will wilt against one of the hotter teams in the NBA, as the Pelicans have won 4-of-5, and 10 of their last last 13 games.

New Orleans Pelicans 96, Phoenix Suns 94

Next: 5 Must-Win Games For The Suns To Keep Playoff Hopes Alive

More from Valley of the Suns

• Ranking the Phoenix Suns’ 5 holiday games in 2023-24
• Zion Williamson gets compared to Phoenix Suns legend
• Suns player preview: Bol Bol can be the perfect role player
• Former Suns’ guard shows he is officially done with Phoenix
• NBA insider guarantees Suns’ rival won’t make blockbuster trade