15-5: Ahead of last night’s 108-100 victory over the Broolyn Nets, Phoenix Suns head coach Jeff Hornacek reportedly told ESPN that the team needed to go 15-5 the rest of the way in order to make the playoffs. One game later, the magic number is down to 14, and with another solid outing, the Suns could be one step closer to postseason play.
Looking at the 19 games left to play, there are six that are pretty much must-win games, against non-playoff teams in either conference. The question is this: Can the Suns go 8-5 against some of the best teams in the NBA?
Today’s game should provide a lot of insight as to that answer.
The Cavaliers come into this game at 39-25, and like the Suns, they are on a back-to-back. There may be a little rustiness for the Cavaliers, seeing as both LeBron James and Kyrie Irving played 40+ minutes in their loss to Atlanta, where it looked like they just ran out of gas in the end. As the younger team, the freshness advantage has to go to Phoenix, but to be fair, that probably won’t have too much of an impact on the game.
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On the other hand, something that IS likely to have a big impact on the game is three-point shooting. The Suns were just 3-of-26 from behind the arc against the Nets, although they did shoot a blistering, red-hot, legendary 100% (1-of-1) from distance in overtime. However, the Suns are typically much, much better from long range, as they’re 11th in the NBA in three-point percentage and 7th in made three-point field goals this year. I think it’s a pretty safe bet that the team won’t shoot that poorly again.
The Cavaliers are percentage points higher in both three-point shooting categories, but they trail the Suns in field goal percentage, while playing at a slower pace. It may seem counter-intuitive to speed up a game being played against mega-athletes in LeBron James and Kyrie Irving, but if the Suns can get up and down the floor before the Cavaliers’ defense has a chance to settle in, they could be well on their way to winning.
After all, the Cavaliers have been one of the NBA’s best defensive teams since the New Year, holding opponents to 90-or-fewer points on eight different occasions. By comparison, Phoenix has done it twice, and the Golden State Warriors, who lead the NBA in field goal percentage defense, have done it just six times.
Measuring stick
The last time these two teams played, LeBron James had just returned to the Cavaliers, but the Suns were able to hold on and get the victory. That win sparked a stretch where Phoenix won four games in a row, and six out of eight. However, both teams are quite different now, both in how they’re playing and how they’re constructed.
For Cleveland, the loss to Phoenix was basically the low point of the season. The Cavaliers were 19-20 at that point, and then they took off, winning 12 games in a row, and 18 of their next 20. However, the Cavaliers have since cooled off, losing three of their last five outings, with only one loss being all that close.
On the other side of things, the Suns have also looked very different since that time. In the first meeting, Miles Plumlee, Goran Dragic and Isaiah Thomas combined for 23 points, eight assists and three rebounds in 54 minutes, but since then, all three have been shipped out to other destinations.
Perhaps one of the biggest positives in the game, for Phoenix, will be one of the additions the Suns made at the trade deadline: Brandon Knight. Knight is averaging 26.5 points, 6.0 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game in his two earlier meetings with the Cavaliers this year. Both of those games occurred when he was on the Milwaukee Bucks.
Morris-Love II
Markieff Morris absolutely exploded in the last meeting between the two teams, and I mean that in the best possible way. The former Kansas forward scored 35 points on 15-of-21 shooting, adding seven rebounds in a performance that saw him lead both teams with a plus/minus of +22. Morris was in fact so dominant that “Coach Nick” of www.bballbreakdown.com decided to analyze how he was able to be so effective in a video that you can see below.
Kevin Love, on the other hand, shot just 3-of-11 from the field, finishing with nine points and nine rebounds in 27 minutes. Since that game, Love has scored 15-or-more points in 13 of his 23 appearances, and he has scored 20-or-more points in two of his last four games, so another nine-point outing seems quite unlikely.
Mini-LeBron vs. Full Sized
If he didn’t already last year, Bledsoe has certainly earned his nickname of Mini-LeBron this year, as he’s led the Suns in points, assists and steals per game. Bledsoe is also just 1.0 rebounds away from leading the Suns in rebounds per game, and before that’s discredited as a function of being on a team with no good rebounders, it’s worth noting that he actually averages more rebounds per 40 minutes than LeBron James.
Yes, that LeBron James.
LeBron James said "you reach, I teach!" in the @cavs dominant win at home. #NBAvine https://t.co/w06k38CR6y
— NBA (@NBA) March 4, 2015
In February, Bledsoe averaged 18.9 points, 6.6 rebounds and 6.1 assists per game, and he’s kept up that run of play into March, where he’s averaging 17-7-6 with a field goal percentage of 51.9%. However, like most NBA players, Bledsoe’s numbers don’t really matchup favorably with the King, who has averaged close to 30-8-6 in his four games this month. However, Bledsoe does lead King James in the categories of field goal percentage, three-point percentage, free throw percentage and rebounds per game for the month, but I don’t think anyone in their right mind would suggest that the two players are on the same level.
Prediction
The Cavaliers are one of the NBA’s best teams, and they play like it. LeBron James goes for 27 points, seven assists and eight rebounds in just 32 minutes, as the Cavaliers take out some of their frustrations from their last game on the Suns. Markieff Morris leads the Suns in scoring, but he isn’t able to go blow-for-blow with perhaps the greatest basketball player in the world today, as the Suns fall in a game where the score is a bit closer than the game felt.
Cavaliers 113, Suns 101