The Phoenix Suns doubled down on the Dragic brothers and the Morris twins this summer. On a more general scale, they doubled down on the guard-happy system by signing Isaiah Thomas and bringing back Eric Bledsoe. By spending money there, they were essentially doubling down on the frontcourt development of Alex Len and Miles Plumlee.
(There was so much doubling down this summer, it might be time for KFC and the Suns’ marketing department to get going on a campaign.)
What all the moves ultimately mean is the team is literally buying into a system and the players already here. But with one important player outgoing, questions abound. Channing Frye‘s departure is the biggest worry for Grantland’s Danny Chau, and maybe it’s why Vegas pegged Phoenix’s over/under at 42.5 wins.
Here’s a key statistic that leads Chau to worry.
"The Suns obviously took more 3s when Frye was on the court, but they also made a significantly higher percentage of them. When Frye was on the court, the Suns made 39.3 percent of their 3-point attempts, per NBAwowy, a percentage that would put them right there with the Spurs, at the top. With Frye off the court, that percentage plummeted to 33.7 percent, a bottom-five figure. Take away Frye, and you’re left with a bunch of stray lightning bolts, without a rod to cull them."
Anthony Tolliver obviously replaces Frye as a body at the power forward spot and for what he does, shooting the hell out of the ball. He’ll play a pivotal role in spacing the court, but for a number of reasons — his inability to play center being the primary one — he won’t be as utilized.
The Suns’ decision to stand behind the current frontcourt sidestepped any addition of an offensive-minded post player, and it means the depth up front is a bit more thin, which is the most obvious reasoning behind going small. Markieff Morris said at camp he would be seeing a lot of time at backup center, where Frye played last year, and that’s necessary because it allows Phoenix to put more and better shooters like Tolliver and Marcus Morris on the floor.
Morris, Morris and Tolliver will each do their part to create on-court gravity, but it won’t be the same as Frye.
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Markieff Morris, for 72 minutes last season, played in a lineup with Goran Dragic, P.J. Tucker, Gerald Green and Marcus Morris; that unit scored at an offensive rating (points per 100 possessions) of 100.5 and allowed 107. In a lineup with two point guards and Green at small forward (Ish Smith was in place of P.J. Tucker), Phoenix put up a much better offensive rating of 109.9 and had a much better defensive rating of 95.6, according to NBA.com’s stats. That is from just 48 minutes of data. Oddly enough, it wasn’t at a backbreaking pace and also didn’t include very good three-point shooting (11-of-34, or 32 percent).
Phoenix would hope Isaiah Thomas, and having two point guards on the court in general, is the answer to help the Morris twins’ effectiveness like Smith did in those few minutes last year.
General point: the Suns will hope they can speed things up and play smaller with more shooters elsewhere — that will alleviate the need for a stretch big man. As Chau pointed out in his piece, Frye’s impact last season went beyond acting as a pick-and-roll threat with Goran Dragic and the starters. Frye played as the team’s backup center, alongside Markieff Morris.
"Frye’s departure also robbed the Suns of their most productive duo. Of the 22 tandems that played at least 750 minutes last season, Markieff Morris and Frye were by far the best. When the two were on the floor together, the Suns were scoring 115.4 points per 100 possessions, with a net rating of 11.6 — easily the best numbers of the lot. Dragic and Bledsoe came in second with 11.0. So yeah, Channing Frye is kind of likeThe Book of Eli, except massively important."
In a way, the doubling down on point guards is perhaps a way to emphasize what the Suns are working with in the frontcourt. Adding Thomas puts another three-point shooter on a bench group that relied on Smith (not a shooter) last year, alleviating the need for a player like Frye to stretch the court for the bench.
Either Alex Len begins running the offense inside-out as Markieff Morris did off the bench last year, or it’ll be on the Morris twins and Tolliver to play small ball with two point guards and another excellent transition scorer, be it Green or rookie T.J. Warren.
As Len continues to develop, bet on the latter.