Suns vs. Mavericks NBA expert prediction and odds for Thursday, Feb. 22 (Back Phoenix as an underdog)

The Suns won five of their final six games heading into the All-Star break, defeating Sacramento and Detroit to move to a season-high 11 games over .500. Phoenix opens the back stretch of the regular season with a monster, nationally-televised contest on the road against Dallas in a matchup of two teams fighting for the seeding in the Western Conference.

Phoenix is currently No. 5 in the west but is tied with No. 6 New Orleans and has just a one-game lead over the No. 7 Mavericks. Dallas caught fire leading up to the All-Star break, winning six consecutive games before last weekend’s festivities in Indianapolis. Can the Mavericks keep that momentum as short favorites Thursday night when Phoenix comes to town? 

Here’s the betting preview for the Western Conference showdown with a best bet. 

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Suns vs. Mavericks odds, spread and total

Suns vs. Mavericks how to watch

• Date: Thursday, Feb. 22 
• Game time: 7:30 p.m. EST
• Venue:  American Airlines Center 
• How to watch (TV): TNT
• Suns record: 33-22
• Mavericks record: 32-23

Suns vs. Mavericks injury report

Phoenix Suns

• Bradley Beal (hamstring): questionable 

Dallas Mavericks

• Dante Exum (knee): out 

Suns vs. Mavericks key players to watch

Suns

Bradley Beal: Beal played in only five minutes of the Suns’ 130-125 win over Sacramento with a hamstring injury and missed the team’s Valentine’s Day win over Detroit. Beal, who also had surgery on his broken nose, is on track to return in Thursday’s matchup against Dallas, adding further firepower to a high-powered Phoenix lineup. Beal, in his first season in the desert, is averaging 18.2 points and 4.5 assists per game as one of the complimentary pieces to a star-studded rotation. 

Mavericks

Daniel Gafford: Acquired by Dallas in a deal with Washington at the deadline, Gafford has averaged 15 points and 12 rebounds in three games with the Mavericks, including back-to-back double-doubles leading up to the All-Star break. Gafford is averaging 11.1 points and 8.3 rebounds per game. He leads the NBA in field goal percentage (68.3%) and is seventh in blocks. 

Suns vs. Mavericks prediction and pick

Las Vegas is projecting a high-scoring game as this matchup has the second-highest total (Indiana vs. Detroit) of any game on the board for Thursday. 

Phoenix is No. 9 in offensive rating and Dallas is No. 11. Both teams are better on that side of the ball and feed off an up-tempo style of play with Dallas ranked No. 8 in pace and Phoenix being No. 15. The two teams split a pair of high-scoring contests earlier this season with Dallas winning 128-114 on Christmas and Phoenix returning the favor with a 132-109 thrashing on Jan. 24. 

Dallas has been great as a favorite this season, going 19-12 ATS when laying points, but has struggled overall against winning teams. The Mavericks have beaten up the below-average teams in the NBA but are just 14-18 against teams with a winning record. Phoenix is an underdog for just the 14th time this season (6-7 ATS), but getting Beal back in the lineup is a huge bump against a Dallas defense that is 19th in the NBA in scoring (117.2 points per game).

Beal missed the Christmas loss to Dallas but was in the lineup in January as he, Kevin Durant, and Devin Booker combined for 78 points in a 23-point victory. Phoenix’s defense is fourth in the NBA in opponents’ field goal percentage on the road (46.2%) and should be good enough while the offense leads the way for an outright upset. Take the Suns as a short underdog. 

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.