Ryan Dunn: The Suns' biggest X-factor this season

When the Suns traded back in the first round to select Ryan Dunn with the 28th overall pick in this year's draft, it was for obvious reasons. Last season, the Suns lacked size, athleticism, and point-of-attack defense on the wing—three boxes that Ryan Dunn checked as a prospect.

Most notably, Dunn was touted as a tenacious defender, and someone considered by most who cover the draft to be the top perimeter defensive prospect in this year's class. Hence why Phoenix's front office has publicly been on record stating that Dunn was their top target going into draft night.

Dunn's defensive prowess is the exact sort of skillset that the Suns have lacked in their rotation since they dealt away Mikal Bridges, Cameron Johnson, and Jae Crowder as part of the Kevin Durant trade.

Since then, the Suns have sort of been piecing together their wing rotation with a makeshift group of cheap, flawed players—none of which have been able to fill the void of those players as true, reliable three-and-D wings with size and spacing.

Last year, they tried a number of different guys on minimum deals—specifically, Keita Bates-Diop, Josh Okogie, Nassir Little, and Yuta Watanabe. None of those guys stuck in the rotation, and only Okogie remains on the roster, though even he was receiving DNPs come playoff time.

Then there were Grayson Allen—who was the team's starting small forward all season long—and Royce O'Neale—who was added at the trade deadline. Both Allen and O'Neale played very well for Phoenix in their first season with the team—with Allen leading the NBA in three-point percentage at 46.1% and O'Neale shooting a respectable 37.6% as well.

The problem is—when your team is built around a trio that includes Devin Booker and Bradley Beal—Allen and O'Neale are forced to play most of their minutes at the forward spot in the lineup. And while that duo is an integral part of what Phoenix wants to do in terms of spacing the floor, they both stand at only 6'4", which creates a massive size disadvantage on the wing on a nightly basis—and especially in Allen's case—you suddenly are heavily relying on a below-average defender to be your point-of-attack defensive stopper.

While Phoenix was actually better than most might have expected as a team defensively last year—ranking 13th in the NBA in defensive rating—it's not hard to look down the roster and understand that with their current personnel, there is a real ceiling on what they can be on that end. And while adding guys like Tyus Jones and Monte Morris will surely help the offense, it only adds to their size issues on the defensive end.

So, who guards Luka? Or Anthony Edwards? What about Shai Gilgeous-Alexander? These are the players the Suns will have to go through if they have any hopes of making a deep run this season. Is it going to be Grayson Allen, or Royce O'Neale? Or are you going to ask Devin Booker to carry an unsustainable amount of load on both ends?

That's where Ryan Dunn comes in.

Dunn measures in at 6'6" with a 7'2" wingspan and sports both the ideal physique and natural defensive instinct and IQ to thrive as the point-of-attack defender every contenders needs.

Among all first round picks taken this year, here is how Dunn ranked out in some key defensive categories:

Dunn is the definition of a defensive playmaker. He is elite at generating events on that end of the court, whether it be deflections, forcing turnovers, or blocking shots—he does it all. Not only is he great on the perimeter, but he absolutely thrives as a weak side help defender and rim protector, and is at his best recovering for his teammates' mistakes in the paint.

He grades out as the second best shot blocker in the entire draft class despite being only 6'6"—and in a group that includes 7'2" Donovan Clingan, 7'0" Alexandre Sarr, and 7'4" Zach Edey—that is nothing short of incredible. Plus, leading the class in defensive rating—a stat typically dominated by bigs—is also ridiculously impressive.

With all that said, we know Dunn can defend, and we know the Suns could use wing defenders. But plugging him into the rotation from day one isn't as straightforward as it seems. There's a reason that Dunn fell all the way to the back end of the first round in what was largely considered the weakest draft in at least a decade.

In two full seasons at Virginia, Dunn made only 12 total three pointers—including shooting an abysmal 20% last season. To go along with that, he shot only 52.5% from the line in his college career as well, which might be even more discouraging, given that college free throw percentage is typically a better indicator of shot translation to the pros than three-point percentage.

In other words, his jump shot is broken.

Now we certainly have seen jump shot reclamation projects in the NBA in the past. Herb Jones shot only 28.8% from three and 60.4% from the line in his college career, Jaylen Brown hit only 29.4% of his threes and 65.4% of his free throws in his lone collegiate season, and even Kawhi Leonard managed only 25.0% from deep in his college career—just to name a few.

Now in the NBA, Jones is coming off a career-high 41.8% from three last season, Brown has hit a respectable 36.4% from deep in his career, and in the extreme case, Kawhi Leonard has turned into a truly elite shooter—hitting better than 40% from three in four seasons since joining the Clippers. So, clearly there is a path for well-below-average shooters in college to become—at least—respectable floor spacers in the pros.

Is there a path for Dunn to follow suit? Well, it depends how much you trust the offseason workout videos.

But unfortunately for Suns fans, it does seem like Dunn has an even more extreme case of "broken-jumper-itis" than the aforementioned development stories, the main reasons being the relative three-point volume and the free throw numbers—both of which pinpoint Dunn as significantly behind the curve on the other guys.

Jaylen Brown attempted nearly triple the number of threes that Dunn did in college (2.3 attempts compared to 0.8)—and for Kawhi—that number is nearly quadruple (3.0 attempts). So, while they didn't make a ton, at least they showed a willingness to let it fly. And while Kawhi didn't knock it down from outside, he still shot a very solid 74.4% from the line—showing that he had at least some sort of touch from outside the paint.

And while Herb Jones' overall college shooting stats might seem comparable to Dunn's (0.9 three-point attempts and 60.4% from the line), he did take a significant leap as a shooter in his senior season—raising his numbers up to 35.1% from three on 1.7 attempts and 71.3% from the line—numbers that we just haven't seen Dunn come even close to.

So, what happens if he can't improve the shot? Will the Suns be able to play a 20% three-point shooter big minutes? Almost assuredly not—especially in the postseason, where teams will refuse to acknowledge him on the perimeter and Phoenix will be forced to essentially play 4-on-5 offensively.

The Suns don't need him to shoot 40%, but if his shot can develop enough to just hover in the ballpark of 33-to-34% from deep, then he immediately becomes—not only playable—but likely a key cog in their rotation.

This is what makes Dunn's jump shot the absolute X-factor for the Suns this season.

If his shot develops to a respectable clip, then Phoenix immediately adds a legit point-of-attack three-and-D defensive wing with size to guard the opposing team's best player—a role that might be the team's biggest weakness right now.

But if it doesn't, then Dunn likely will be nothing more than a slightly taller Josh Okogie, will struggle to find minutes, and the Suns' need for a defensive-minded wing with size will remain a void that they still need to fill—likely coming external from the current roster.

Dunn's jump shot reliability might be the single biggest ceiling raiser for the 2024-25 Phoenix Suns. His emergence as a high-end rotation option could propel the team into legitimate contention in the Western Conference—but without it—they will continue to have a major gap and likely remain on the outside looking in on the group of true championship contenders.