A Comprehensive breakdown of a critical season for the Phoenix Suns

We hear "Championship or bust" as a label commonly assigned to teams that have made significant investments into their roster in just a short time—both from an asset and a financial perspective.

After emptying their draft capital cupboard—by way of acquiring Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal—and now heading into the 2024-25 season with the most expensive roster in NBA history, the Phoenix Suns certainly fit that bill.

With such lofty expectations coming into last year, most considered the first season with the trio of Devin Booker, Bradley Beal, and Kevin Durant to be severely disappointing for Phoenix. It's not hard to understand why, as they hovered in the play-in range for the majority of the season before eventually getting swept in the postseason—despite being the betting favorites over Minnesota.

The "champion or bust" label often is overblown

When LeBron James finally captured the ever-so-elusive title with Miami in 2012, his underwhelming 2011 Finals performance was quickly forgotten. When Kobe Bryant won titles number four and five in 2009 and 2010, the "Kobe can't win without Shaq" narrative was immediately put to bed.

Even the reigning NBA champion Boston Celtics were viewed by many as a team that might never get over the hump, yet no one will remember them as the team that lost in the Conference Finals four out of seven seasons, but rather as 2024 NBA champions.

This would assuredly hold true for Phoenix as well. If the Suns were to win the 2025 NBA championship, the sweep to the Timberwolves this past year would be nothing more than a footnote in what would be the most revered Phoenix team in franchise history.

So, are the Suns truly a "championship or bust" team? Not necessarily. A trip to the Finals—while not the ultimate goal—would still likely be viewed by the franchise and fans as a successful year, and for a team that has only three NBA Finals appearances in its franchise history, that alone could justify the trades for Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal in itself.

Despite that, this coming season looms as a critical one. The type of season that could serve as a turning point for the franchise depending on how it concludes.

If the Suns fail to make meaningful progress as a team or can't show the front office that they are at least close to contending, then there is a real possibility that this is the last we see of the Suns' self-proclaimed "big three" and Phoenix's roster could look drastically different next season.

So why exactly might this be a "last dance" of sorts for this group? The reality of what lies ahead for the franchise might be forced upon them sooner than they think.

Second Apron implications

It's been well documented the many restrictions that come from operating as a second apron team, which it seems like Mat Ishbia and the Suns have become the poster boy for.

As a second apron team, you cannot aggregate multiple salaries in a trade, you cannot sign external free agents to any contract other than the veteran minimum, you cannot take back even one cent more in salary than you are sending out in a trade, you cannot acquire players via sign-and-trade, and so on.

Most fans have familiarized themselves with those limitations at this point, and those restrictions—while obviously not ideal—seem palatable if you have the sufficient talent in place already. The Suns certainly seem more than comfortable operating within those parameters.

However, there's one significant penalty that has yet to come into play, and that is the "Draft Pick Penalty," outlined below within the 2023 Collective Bargaining Agreement:

"Draft Pick Penalty means, for a Team’s first round draft pick, that such draft pick shall be the final draft pick in the first round of the applicable NBA Draft (regardless of the position in the first round of the Draft at which the Team otherwise would have selected pursuant to NBA rules governing the order of selection by Teams in the Draft)".

So, when does the "Draft Pick Penalty" come into play?

"Beginning with the 2024-25 Salary Cap Year, if a Team is a Second Apron Team for a Salary Cap Year, then, with respect to the four (4) Salary Cap Years immediately following such Salary Cap Year: If the Team is a Second Apron Team for two (2) or more of such four (4) Salary Cap Years, then such first round draft pick shall be subject to a Draft Pick Penalty".

To summarize, if a team is in the second apron for the 2024-25 season, then if they remain in the second apron for any two of the next four seasons following that, then that team's first round draft pick seven years down the line moves back to the 30th pick in the draft—no matter where they finish in the standings.

To put this in Phoenix's terms, they will qualify as a second apron team for the upcoming 2024-25 season, which means that for all of the 2025-2026, 2026-27, 2027-28, and 2028-29 seasons, they can only afford one season in the second apron over that span. If they fail to get under the second apron for at least three of those four years, then their 2032 pick immediately moves back to the end of the first round, regardless of the Suns' record during that season.

In 2032, Kevin Durant will be 43-years-old and long retired, Bradley Beal will be 38 and likely out of the league as well, and even Devin Booker will—at best—be on his last legs at 35 years old. There is no telling what the Suns' roster might look like at that point, and without control of any of their first round picks until 2031 (for now at least, we'll see if they move that pick), it will take some real front office wizardry for this franchise to still be in clear playoff contention.

Having their 2032 pick pushed back to 30th in the draft would be a terrifying reality for Phoenix when you consider the real possibility that the Suns could be a potential bottom-feeder in the league at that point. Would that risk be worth it if the team proves to be legitimately close to contending?

Probably. But without this group backing it up on the court during the 2024-25 season, it becomes nearly impossible to justify.

Kevin Durant's contract situation

It's no secret that Kevin Durant-led teams haven't exactly been the paradigm for stability—at least not since he left Golden State. His tenure with the Warriors ended in a bit of sour fashion, and then in Brooklyn, the combination of James Harden, Kyrie Irving, and Durant publicly made a total of four trade requests between the three of them in just three forgetful seasons.

The KD trade rumors have already been swirling since what feels like the moment the offseason began. Despite that, Durant is saying all the right things in Phoenix and seems to be content with where he is—at least for now—and the rumors appear to be nothing more than just that—rumors.

However, regardless of how pleased Durant is to be a Phoenix Sun, he heads into his second full season with the franchise with only two years remaining on his contract and without an extension in sight. Given that Durant will be 37 years old when his current deal is up, it makes sense why he might want to keep his options open as he approaches what in all likelihood will be his last real pay day.

With that said, if Durant opts not to extend and instead rides out this deal before he can hand pick a new team in the summer of 2026, it puts the Suns in a very peculiar position.

Without that extension, Phoenix runs the risk of the 2025-26 season acting as a lame duck year with the possibility that Durant walks for nothing at the end of the season—a result that feels disastrous considering they gave up what ended up being the equivalent of nine first round picks plus two pick swaps to get him (after the Mikal Bridges-to-New York deal).

Could the Suns still retain KD in free agency or agree to an extension at some point between now and then? Of course they could, but given the investment they made in acquiring Durant, operating with that level of uncertainty with the risk of losing him for nothing feels unjustifiable. But as we approach next summer, that possibility looms as much more of a reality.

That leads us to why this season is so make-or-break for the Suns, because the next logical option would be to look at recouping what they can for him and exploring trades while he still has legitimate value. Unfortunately for Phoenix, at that point, Durant—while still unbelievable good—will be a 36-year-old expiring contract with a severe injury history. In the summer of 2025, he won't command anything close to what they paid for him when they acquired him at the 2023 trade deadline.

So, what could the Suns realistically get for Durant if they opt to explore that route? It's hard to say. With Booker still in his prime and Beal's no-trade clause keeping him around, you would think the Suns would prioritize players rather than picks in any deal so that they can remain competitive.

Alperen Sengun was a name mentioned in previous reports as a piece that could be dangled for Durant. At only 22 years old and looking like a future all-star, it's understandable why that could be appealing to Phoenix. Perhaps a Karl Anthony-Towns and Durant swap could make sense for both sides, as Booker reunites with his college teammate and Anthony Edwards teams up with his childhood idol.

Maybe Cleveland decides to expedite their contention even further and is willing to part with Evan Mobley in a KD deal. Or perhaps the most logical trade partner of all would be a reunion between Durant and Oklahoma City, with Cason Wallace and a haul of picks going back to the Suns in return.

Whatever a deal might look like, it may be closer to happening than Suns fans want to admit—which is why this upcoming season is so pivotal.

Bradley Beal's role

Throughout the history of the NBA, when three high-volume scorers team up, there almost always is one player whose touches, usage, and scoring take a noticeable hit.

For the 2008 Boston Celtics—the team that started the "big three" era in the NBA—it was Ray Allen, whose usage rate dropped from 29.5% in his last year with Seattle to 21.6% in his first year in Boston. Then it was Chris Bosh in Miami, whose usage rate dropped from 28.7% in his final season with Toronto to 23.5% in his first year with the Heat. Then, Kevin Love with Cleveland, whose usage dropped from 28.8% in his last season with Minnesota to 21.7% in his first year alongside LeBron and Kyrie.

For the 2023-24 Phoenix Suns, it was Bradley Beal whose touches took the biggest hit, with his usage rate dropping from 29.2% in his last season in Washington to 22.7% alongside Devin Booker and Kevin Durant in Phoenix.

Obviously, Beal not only signed off on the deal to Phoenix and the likely role of third fiddle—but with his no-trade clause—he basically handpicked it.

So far, Beal has said all the right things and has shown a major willingness to sacrifice shots and usage for the betterment of the team, as highlighted by his comments in the following interview he did late last season:

As mentioned, Beal isn't the first big-time scorer to willingly take a backseat offensively in order to accomplish the ultimate goal of bringing home a championship—and he certainly won't be the last either.

But that's the thing—it's all well and good when you win, but what if you don't? The previous examples discussed—Ray Allen, Chris Bosh, and Kevin Love—all resulted in a championship, which not only justified their sacrifice, but vindicated it.

In year one of the experiment, the Suns failed to even win a single playoff game, let alone a series. For Cleveland and Miami, it took both until year two with their cores to bring home the Larry O'Brien trophy—so of course there is still time. But what happens if the Suns fall short again?

Beal chose to give up touches, shots, and points to go from a perennial play-in team to one that could contend. But if his new team is similarly stuck in annual play-in purgatory, then it's fair to wonder if he might look around and think, what's this sacrifice even for?

This isn't to question Beal's commitment to winning, it's just the reality that in order to justify his commitment, the Suns need to see results—and soon.

An unhappy Beal is the last thing the Suns need because—I hate to break it to you, Suns fans—given his contract situation, he's not going anywhere any time soon. His buy in and acceptance of his role is absolutely vital to the Suns unlocking whatever the best version of this team might be.