The Phoenix Suns were barely able to hold on against the Dallas Mavericks, but their recent loss against the Houston Rockets served as a harsh reminder of the glaring flaws of this Suns team. After taking a 21-point lead in the first quarter, the Suns collapsed once again in the fourth quarter, with a loss that officially eliminated them from contention for a top-six seed in the West. In a game that had a playoff-like atmosphere, the Suns' most concerning trait reared its ugly head.
How bad really are the Suns in the 4th? (Spoiler: really bad)
For anyone who's watched Suns basketball this season, fourth-quarter collapses are nothing new. In the final stanza, the Suns have a net rating of negative-5.8, which ranks 26th in the NBA. Their offensive rating of 107.9 is the league's worst. For reference, no other playoff-seeded (top-8) team in the West ranks in the bottom-12 in fourth quarter net rating (Clippers ranked 18th at -1.0).
When narrowing it down to clutch situations (the final five minutes of the fourth or overtime, with the score within five points), it gets even worse. Their net rating falls to negative-8.4 (22nd in NBA), with the offensive rating dropping to 104.0.
Fourth-quarter offensive execution often comes down to how good a team's best player can be, and Devin Booker hasn't necessarily helped the Suns in this case. Among the 26 players averaging at least 4.0 field goal attempts in the fourth in at least 25 games, Devin Booker holds the fourth-worst field goal percentage at 43.7 (while shooting just 30.8 percent from three). Although he's left much to be desired, the issues extend far beyond him.
What hurts most about this all is that the Suns were a top-11 team in clutch net rating before All-Star Weekend (at 3.5). Their offensive rating was ranked ninth at 114.4. Post All-Star, their clutch net rating is at negative-30.0 (26th) with an offensive rating of 85.2 (28th).
A recipe for disaster in the postseason
These late struggles can largely be attributed to the fact that they're a group of players that don't have a ton of experience together, but that doesn't make it any better.
These clutch situations only become more important when playing postseason basketball. As one of the lower-seeded playoff teams in the West (if they can even make it through the play-in), their only shot at taking down the elite teams ahead of them will be through late-game execution.
For proof of this, look no further than the '23-24 Phoenix Suns. Although this team differs in so many ways, one parallel between them is poor fourth quarter basketball. In the '23-24 season, the Suns, the sixth seed in the West with a record of 49-33, had a league-worst net rating of negative-11.6 in the fourth, over twice as bad as the next-worst team (Miami at negative-5.5).
The postseason result for them was as expected: a Round one loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves in a 4-0 sweep (and the majority of those games weren't even close).
Maybe they can return to their early-season ways in terms of clutch execution, but they only have a few games left to do so. Otherwise, it will be a short-lived postseason run for the Phoenix Suns.