How many 3-point shots can the Suns realistically take each game?
By Luke Duffy
If there is one area the Phoenix Suns have struggled massively recently, it has been with their defensive rating. As expected when this roster was put together, this is a group that isn't very good at getting stops. It gets better when Kevin Durant is out there - but across their last seven games - only the Brooklyn Nets and Chicago Bulls have allowed more points than the 121.1 of the Suns.
There are some obvious reasons for this - such as center Jusuf Nurkic's limited abilities - while underrated defenders such as Grayson Allen not getting as much run as last season could also be a factor. All of which is to say, the Suns need to lean even more heavily into outscoring opponents, and 3-point volume would appear to be the way to do it.
But how many shots from deep per game than this group reach?
If it feels like the Suns are already pretty high up in this category, then that's because they are. On the season they're taking the sixth most of any team, at 40.8 each night. Even Nurkic has gotten in on the act, with his 3.1 each night easily the highest output of his career.
Right now the math doesn't quite stack up in the Suns' favour - they're bang average shooting 36.6 percent on these efforts - but there's reason to believe that could soon change. In the seven games that Durant and Bradley Beal have missed, the team have actually taken even more 3-pointers, at 42.6 per game.
That they've made 34.6 of them - good for 19th in the league - partly explains why they've lost five games in a row. Obviously the shot distribution has been changed with two of the team's best three players out, and plugging them back in isn't going to make the Suns take any more shots from deep than we've seen already this season.
If anything the attempts might actually go down - but with the efficiency going up - the trade off will work in the team's favor. Durant is 42.9 percent for the season so far, while Beal is sitting at 38.3 percent. Combined they account for 13 makes from this area, which does suggest that the Suns could sniff the rarified air the Boston Celtics currently inhabit.
They're the only team in the league chucking up over 50 attempts from 3-point range - an absurd number when you think about it - and to watch them is to see any player on their roster get the green light if the shot makes sense. You might have to squint a little, Nurkic is not Sam Hauser out there, but a blueprint exists to copy the Celtics and get close to that 50 mark.
Durant, Beal, Devin Booker, Grayson Allen and Royce O'Neale are all encouraged to take shots from deep. Nurkic is doing it more than ever, while Ryan Dunn and Tyus Jones are taking nearly 10 combined each game. With Booker leading the way at 7.6 and Allen finding some more confidence in his stroke lately, all of this bodes well for a scoring explosion in the coming weeks.
We've seen Booker have to revert back to the do-it-all superstar of the past - and while he's not comfortable in this role - it will hopefully have given him the appetite for taking over games again. Only with Durant soon to be back to close the show, he can focus on letting it fly in the space he had gotten used to operating in.
Really though rookie Dunn could be the key here. He started off the season on a heater, but has come crashing back down to earth in recent weeks. Yet despite this, he's still taking over four attempts on average, and he's doing this whether they go in or not. If he can find his shot again, that number will creep higher as well.
What does all of this mean then? Will the Suns match the Celtics and break the 50 point barrier? No. Are they going to take a few less but ultimately make more once fully healthy? It would seem so. Will all of this lead to a point where they're taking about 48 attempts from 3-point range, as they blow some opponents out of the water? That is coming, they just have to weather this storm first.