Most probably think it isn't possible to make the Phoenix Suns' future appear any worse than it already does. It turns out that's just not true.
Sam Quinn of CBS Sports recently cobbled together an exhaustive list of first-round selections and swaps currently owed to other teams, and then ranked them according to their current trade value. Nobody will be surprised to know the Suns had all of the firsts they traded for Kevin Durant included, as well as each of the swaps they surrendered in the initial Bradley Beal deal. The real revelation? Five of Phoenix's future draft obligations cracked the top 10. Seriously.
Here is where the Suns’ picks and swaps ranked among the 63 first-round selections included in the exercise:
- No. 12: 2030 first-round swap
- No. 9: 2028 first-round swap
- No. 8: 2026 first-round swap
- No. 5: 2027 first-round pick
- No. 4: 2031 first-round pick
- No. 3: 2029 first-round pick
On the bright side (or something), none of the Suns’ future first-round obligations finished first or second. On the not-so-bright side, this really puts the opportunity cost of acquiring Beal and Durant into perspective.
Trading for Kevin Durant is the Suns’ cardinal sin
So many point to the Beal trade as Phoenix’s biggest misstep of its star-chasing era. But not negotiating harder in the Durant blockbuster is the larger issue. It completely drained the Suns of future first-round picks, and was nothing if not a harbinger of Mat Ishbia’s new owner syndrome.
Phoenix forked over the moon, when it was the only team on KD’s list of preferred destinations at the time. The package was so steep that the deal, in hindsight, just keeps getting worse.
That trade also laid the groundwork for what happened with Beal. The Suns would not have been as inclined to triple-down if they didn’t give up so much to get Durant. And if they were inclined to triple-down, they may have been able to set their sights higher than Beal, had they saved any of the key players (Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson) or picks they shipped out in the trade.
Phoenix will have trouble digging out of this hole
There is always the possibility that Phoenix outperforms expectations, and renders its future swaps and picks less valuable than they seem now. But that scenario feels like a long shot.
The Suns are going to have trouble significantly improving when they don’t control their own first-rounder again until 2032, and when they have a $19.4 million dead cap hit for Beal on the books for the next half-decade. Even if they manage to carve out serious cap space, it’s not happening before 2028.
The upside to that flexibility is also limited now that All-Stars seldom change teams in free agency. And while cap space can be used to complete blockbuster trades, Phoenix will have a hard time doing that without more draft equity to include.
This situation is as bleak as it gets. Extending Devin Booker does only so much to help. And if we’re being honest, we all know this likely ends with him asking for our, or with the Suns deciding to trade him anyway.
It may not happen next season (he’s trade-eligible beginning January 10), next summer, or even the season after. But right now, it’s tough to envision Phoenix ever cobbling a contender around him again when its best rebuilding tools are currently owned by other teams.