The dominoes have begun to fall in Phoenix as the Suns have kicked off whats sure to be a hectic offseason. The chain reaction began with the firing Monty Williams, immediately followed by the hiring of Frank Vogel. After a flurry of reporting Wednesday afternoon, it seems that a decision on the future of Chris Paul will be made next.
It began with an erroneous report by Chris Haynes stating that the Suns had already waived Paul. That was quickly dispelled by Adrian Wojnarowski, Shams Charania, and the Suns themselves, with the two reporters stating that the Suns are still evaluating a multitude of options when it comes to CP3.
If Paul is indeed waived however, which is an option that is very much on the table, the Suns have a couple routes they can take.
As we have already covered here at Valley of the Suns, the organization can actually sign Paul back at a lower salary after he clears waivers. The Suns would also now have the full $12 million mid-level exception to play with in that scenario. A huge boost given the clear depth needs this roster has
Keeping Paul while also getting some significant salary relief sounds like a dream scenario that’s looking more and more like a reality. Paul would still be getting a sizable sum of money from the guaranteed part of his deal ($15.8 million of the $30.8 owed to him if he is on the team after June 28th), so it wouldn’t be a massive pay cut for him by any means.
Woj also reported that Paul is eager to continue playing in Phoenix. If owner Mat Ishbia has shown us anything so far, it’s that the impossible is shockingly possible and he is willing to be aggressive in using this championship window to go all in.
The other option the Suns have when it comes to waiving Paul is stretching his contract to a lower figure over more years. This would equate to just over $3 million for five seasons, an extremely manageable amount. They wouldn’t be allowed to re-sign Paul in that case, but they’d have even more money to play with and would have an easier time keeping the full mid-level exception open.
This scenario isn’t nearly as appealing as the former though, as it’s unlikely the Suns can find someone as good as Paul with the small amount of money they’re saving. It is more likely the Suns will only waive Paul if they already have an agreement with him to return on the veteran minimum.
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Another option that’s now back on the table is to try and find a trade partner for Paul. Right now, and until that aforementioned June 28th deadline, that $15.8 million of Paul’s contract which is guaranteed is roughly the amount he can bring back in a trade. However, the Suns can stilll do nothing and guarantee his deal, if they have their eyes on a bigger fish, or two smaller ones.
The Suns would get the most bang for their buck the closer they are to that $30.8 million figure, and should actively try to find a trade partner that can get there with two smaller contracts. It will be a lot harder to land a singular max player in a trade since the Suns don’t have any valuable draft capital.
There is the unique scenario of a sign-and-trade though, in which a team would be happy to get anything for a player that’s going to walk. Should that happen, Paul’s full contract can bring back a big time player, although those are few and far between this free agency.
Ultimately, trading Paul for a couple of solid role players is the Suns’ best and most realistic option here. They’d still have the tax payers exception to add an additional decent player, and could have the full exception available depending on the salaries they bring back.
The next best option would be to bring him back on the veteran’s minimum in a reserve role and then try to find a starting point guard with the money saved. Either way, it’s clear that a decision on Paul will be made in short order, and nothing should be totally out of the question.