Phoenix Suns Starting Lineup, Bench Depth and Season Win Prediction

With the 2022-23 NBA season set to begin, the Phoenix Suns approach another campaign with a new set of realistic expectations.

No longer is it championship or bust for the Phoenix Suns, but more of how far can they go with a modified lineup, and can they play well amidst the off-court distractions?

Here’s the new starting lineup for the Suns this season:

Starting Lineup:
PG – Chris Paul
SG – Devin Booker
SF – Mikal Bridges
PF – Cameron Johnson
C – DeAndre Ayton

The Suns have revamped their starting lineup offensively, with the addition of Johnson for Jae Crowder bringing more spacing and a deadlier shooting threat. Johnson was fourth in three-point percentage league-wide last season, his 42.5% on six attempts per game a major contrast to Crowder’s roller coaster shooting from deep at 34.8%. The best case scenario here is that it opens up the paint for easier drives where the Suns ranked 29th last season.

Johnson also provides more on the drive which, combined with his shooting, means the Suns offense just got better. The issue will be on defense where Crowder has a stouter and stronger body that can bang in the paint against bigger guys. He is also one of the Suns best team defenders, quarterbacking a big chunk of the defense that lightens the load for Ayton, Paul and Booker.

At 209 lbs, Johnson has a thinner frame compared to Crowder (236 lbs). He can become a competent defender in his own right, but it’s unlikely that he’ll be on the same level as a team defender. The uptick on offense should somewhat mitigate the drop on defense, but how much could the NBA’s second best offense improve? Conversely, how much could the NBA’s third best defense drop off?

The Suns could become the top offense in the league if they increase their paint attempts from the extra spacing Johnson provides. The Suns were fourth in points in the paint despite ranking 29th in attempts, meaning there’s still so much room for improvement for last season’s second ranked offense. They should be a lock for a top five offense, and will be hoping their defense doesn’t drop lower than 10th.

The Phoenix Suns bench has taken a hit due to team issues.

Johnson finished third in Sixth Man of the Year voting last season, and with Crowder refusing to play for the team, there’s a significant dent and void in the Suns depth. Here’s how their bench looks heading into the season.

Bench:
PG – Cameron Payne, Duane Washington Jr.
SG – Landry Shamet, Damion Lee
SF – Torrey Craig, Josh Okogie
PF – Dario Saric, Ish Wainright
C – Jock Landale, Bismack Biyombo

PG – Payne was awful last season, shooting 40.9% from the field and 33.6% from three. He has to find his shooting touch and show improved rim finishing, while Washington needs to show the potential he possess. He had an up-and-down preseason, including the final one where he scored 31 points but had an absurdly high 11 turnovers.

SG – Both Shamet and Lee have so far been inconsistent in their roles. Shamet’s known as a three-point marksman, yet shot at a fairly pedestrian 36.8% last season. Lee was a decent 8th to 10th man on the bench for the Warriors, mixing some good games with a bunch of bad games. The consistency just isn’t there and there’s not much talent for the Suns in this position.

SF – Both Craig and Okogie are good defenders and rebounders for their position, but their substandard shooting may make this a major problem area for Phoenix.

PF – Saric played best for the Suns as a small-ball center, and now after coming back from a torn ACL and meniscus, playing against the league’s speedier forwards probably won’t bode well for him defensively. Ish Wainright plays hard and plays team basketball but is still a low end rotation player.

C – This is the only position where the Suns could potentially be deep and elite. If Landale proves his preseason wasn’t a fluke, he could give the Suns a new look everytime Ayton rests; a potentially sweet shooting big man with a high motor that rebounds well, along with Biyombo who is a good switch defender for a backup and a good pick and roll big.

The bench would seem to be a big weakness for now until the Suns find a good trade for Crowder. Still, an elite and synergistic starting five can go a long way and there remains expectation for them to be a regular season winning machine. They’ll hope for a clean bill of health as the season progresses, because an injury to any of the starting five could quickly dampen their hopes.

Wins: At worst the Suns should still be in the low 50’s, with a mark around 52-53 which is more than 10 games worse than last season. That would still be good for a top four or five seed in the Western Conference. If all goes well and a decent trade is made, 54-56 wins seems likely and not that far fetched.