After a disastrous conclusion to the 2022 NBA playoffs, and an offseason with little roster movement, eyes immediately focused towards the Phoenix Suns’ capacity for internal improvement.
A major facet of that has been their system, particularly regarding an offense that many describe as a throwback to decades prior. While the league has delved further into analytics and the three-point shot, Phoenix have bucked the trend in a style predicated on the mid-range jumpshot.
Whether by design or not, preseason action suggests the Phoenix Suns may be exploring a more modern offense with greater three-point attempts.
Phoenix ranked 26th in three-point attempts last season at 31.9 per game, nearly ten less than the number one ranked Minnesota Timberwolves. It was conservative but effective as the Suns picked apart every team on their way to a 64-18 record.
But as the playoffs came around and teams could gameplan across a seven-game series, the Suns traditional style became constricted with a lack of spacing. It culminated with a lacklustre 27-point first half against the Dallas Mavericks in game seven, ultimately evaporating their title chances in the process.
So how much can we read into the Suns 35.3 average attempts across four preseason games? While an increase on last season appears a mere formality, a jump of nearly four per game is fairly unlikely.
Phoenix’s system is clearly established by their personnel; Chris Paul, Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton are amongst the most efficient mid-range shooters in the league. With those three playing limited minutes over the preseason, and missing the fourth and final game entirely, the three-point attempts were clearly going to skew as a result.
Of course, a rise in volume means nothing if the efficiency plummets; the Suns ranked ninth in three-point percentage last season at 36.4%, yet shot just 29.1% to be ranked 25th this preseason. Like the volume, that efficiency level will revert back towards a normal range in the regular season; their elite three-point shooters will play more often, and most will find a better rhythm as the reps increase.
The three-point numbers are still a matter of focus entering the season. There’s no reason the Suns can’t boost their volume to 33-34 per game, and even their efficiency to 37-38%.