Is the ‘clutch’ factor repeatable for the Phoenix Suns in 2022-23?
The lasting memory of the Phoenix Suns season is one of embarrassment, of fading to the pressure of a game seven in front of optimistic home fans.
The franchise entered that game still garnering championship expectations, classified by many as remaining a title favourite. In one calamitous 24 minute period, the hopes were whisked away in a disappointment that beggared belief.
But while that may be a prominent example of conceding to relentless tension, it’s easy to forget that the Suns, during the regular season, were one of the best clutch teams in modern NBA history.
In clutch time, defined by less than five minutes to play and less than five points the margin, Phoenix had a net rating of 33.4. That’s over double the second ranked team in Milwaukee (15.9), while only two teams sat in double digits.
Across this century, only two teams have had a better net rating in clutch time. That’s the 2008-09 Cleveland Cavaliers with LeBron James, and the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors who broke the all-time win record as they went 73-9.
How much was luck an element in the Phoenix Suns clutch record last season, or is it a genuine strength they’ll lean on again next season?
Before last season, Phoenix ranked 13th, 21st and 27th in net rating during clutch time across the previous three years. Clearly that would identify that it’s not some franchise trend, and that their historic 2021-22 season was somewhat of an outlier. So, what other trends could we identify as a means for expectation next season?
Let’s look at Chris Paul, the offensive conductor whose pick-and-roll playstyle is often viewed as a blessing, and occasionally a curse as teams plan against it come playoff time.
Last season was the third time in five seasons that Paul’s team had led the NBA in net rating during clutch time. This includes the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2019-20, along with the Houston Rockets in 2017-18.
Why is this the case? Because when other teams deviate into isolation ‘hero ball’, Paul maintains the same style of offense regardless of the situation. The Suns assist percentage was 62% during clutch periods last season, ranked fourth in the league.
Paul himself is an incredibly clutch player, at least in the regular season. He shot 56.5% from the field during clutch situations, well above his overall percentage that sat under 50%. He also had an assist-to-turnover rate of 6.0, also increased from his season ratio of 4.4.
While the Suns may not build a remarkable 33-9 record in clutch situations as they did last season, nor manufacture a net rating over 30, they should be confident in it remaining a strength heading into next season.
Of course, it’s all a moot point if Phoenix can’t sustain that strength during the playoffs. Their net rating in clutch situations remained over 30 in the 2022 playoffs, but that became irrelevant when the first half of game seven was so insanely lopsided.