The Phoenix Suns won their second preseason game of their four-game schedule, and in it showed just how potent they can be offensively if they hit their 3’s. This needs to be a regular season thing.
For the last few years, the Phoenix Suns have been one of if not the worst 3-point shooting team in the NBA.
Against the Portland Trailblazers, sans Ricky Rubio, Devin Booker, and Deandre Ayton, the team launched 3’s at a tremendous rate (45) and nailed a mind-blowing 53.3% of them.
Obviously, the rate in which they made them will not happen often (for reference, the Warriors shot 50% or above 13 times last season), so 50% with regularity is something that should never be expected.
However, the roster is now full of solid to above average 3-point shooters, so the rate in which they shoot them could actually hover around 40 per game – and should happen.
Prior to last season, Head Coach Igor Kokoskov said that he wanted his team to average 30 3-point attempts per game. In a piece on that subject, I noted that if they were going to shoot 30, then why not 40?
While they fell just a hair short of their coach’s request (29.3 per game), they also shot them at a terrible rate, 32.9%, the worst in the league.
With the new roster, one chock full of shooters (minus Rubio), there is no reason that they shouldn’t attempt around 40 a game this year, and not make this one preseason game an aberration.
If the Phoenix Suns are shooting 3’s and making them at a solid clip, the offense will speed up and flow at a much greater rate than we have seen from the franchise in some time.
If their good 3-point shooters are making their shots, then the team will be able to go on offensive runs that has been literally non-existent for the last few years.
If they prove to the league that they are a legitimate 3-point shooting team (unlike last season in which they shot 3’s just to shoot them and not within the flow of a legitimate offense), in the half court, opponents will be forced to stay on their man around the perimeter, allowing Deandre Ayton to maintain single coverage in the post, giving him greater offensive ease, truly making the Suns an inside/outside team.
If the 3-pointer because a legitimate weapon, they will win games – and win a lot more than anyone has predicted (at least, so long as they play defense as well).
There will be two keys to this all coming together though: Rubio and Dario Saric.
Rubio probably should not shoot many 3’s because of his career inability to hit them at a decent rate.
Outside of 35.2% in 2017-18, he is a career 31% outside shooter.
Phoenix Suns
Unfortunately though, if he is not a regular threat from the outside, then the offense will have to rely upon his ability to see movement develop in front of him, and through solid team-passing, seek out and regularly hit the open man.
If he is able to do that (and he will still attempt his couple a game), then 3-point attempts will come with relative ease.
Then, if shooters are regularly open, they will fall at the rate necessary to carry the team over the top.
Dario Saric too is going to be a huge factor.
In fact, he truly might be the offense’s X-factor.
If Ricky Rubio is not going to be an above average 3-point shooter, and Deandre Ayton isn’t going to attempt many (in his two preseason games, he has yet to even take a single outside shot), then as the starting power forward, Saric is going to need to both attempt 5+ a game (something he has only done once, in 2017-18 at 5.1), and probably closer to 7, and he is going to have to make them at as close to a 40% clip as possible.
Obviously the bench is going to be a huge help as well, as literally everyone from Ty Jerome, to Cameron Johnson, Frank Kaminsky to Aron Baynes, can all hit 3’s.
But in those projected lineups similar to the starting lineup that will potentially be short two 3-point shooters, hs ability to get them off and nail them will keep the offense flow with little issue.
For the Phoenix Suns, the winning formula is fairly simple: if they take and make their 3’s at an above average rate, they will have an offense to be reckoned with, one that will be able to win more games than anyone has predicted.
If those shots do not come; or if they do not fall; then this season will once again, be another very long and difficult one to watch.