The Phoenix Suns say they want a combo-guard. If they trade back in the first round, could Kentucky Wildcat Keldon Johnson be their selection?
Keldon Johnson was one half of a pair of solid off-ball threats on the offensive end of the floor for Kentucky this year, the other being Tyler Hero.
Keldon has solid size and looks to be able to fit into the NBA as a wing shooter with defending potential. What can a deep look into his numbers tell us about his NBA potential and whether of not the Phoenix Suns should look to select him should they trade back in the first round of the draft?
The first thing that is clear about Keldon’s game is that he already had success as an off-ball scorer, particularly when running in transition, attacking closeouts, and spotting up to shoot. His points per possession for both catching and shooting and attacking closeouts was over 1.2, a pretty solid number.
He does this with good shooting splits, shooting 60% at the rim, 44% in the midrange and 38% from 3.
Phoenix Suns
Keldon, despite his funky form, has good touch and consistency on his shot making it likely that he will be able to improve shooting percentages going forward, especially if he can iron on those kinks in his form.
Also, Keldon does a good job of drawing the foul once attacking the closeout, drawing 4.4 fouls per 40 minutes and putting up an excellent FT rate off 41.5.
Additionally, Keldon plays extremely hard.
He does all the little little things that coaches and fans love like dive for loose balls, but also performs disciplined with hard closeouts and box outs. These traits helped him to grab 7.6 rebounds per-40 minutes and will be a huge positive for an NBA and will win him minutes.
Keldon also plays hard on the defensive end. He posted the 6th best defensive win shares in the SEC and has a solid defensive base to go with his good frame and has serious defensive potential if he can improve some fundamentals and avid lazy mistakes.
Keldon’s weaknesses will likely limit his upside in the NBA though, forcing him into a certain role. He has a subpar handles and limited finesse. These hold him back when it comes to creating his own shot as well as shots for teammates.
He often attacks with brute force which will become more difficult in the NBA with more athletic players that can match his strength.
Additionally, he isn’t a great passer and tends to be able to only make simple reads. These combine to limit his abilities as a distributor holding him to an assist rate of only 10.4.
Also, giving his solid shooting numbers elsewhere, he should be able to hit more than 70% of his FTs which is where he was at in college.
Defensively, he is solid but his lack of fundamentals and elite athleticism hold him back on that side of the ball as well. He didn’t make many impact defensive plays, putting up only 0.8 steals and 0.2 blocks per game. His lateral agility also leaves something to be desired and will hurt him when defending more athletic wings in the league.
Keldon has a pretty clear role as an off-ball shooter and scorer by spotting-up, running hard in transition, and attacking closeouts. He should be able to stay on the floor with his high motor and the energy and hustle he plays with.
Should the Phoenix Suns draft him, to sustain minutes, he will need to improve his defensive fundamentals, especially staying locked in off the ball.