After last night’s win, the Phoenix Suns should use the momentum to start winning and forget about the lottery.
Before last night’s win over the Miami Heat, the Phoenix Suns had an 11-50 record. They should use last night’s win with a new mindset. The losing streak sat at 17 games with 11 of those losses coming by double digits. This was never going to be a team that contended for the playoffs this year, but they are capable of more than this.
Having the worst record in the NBA has little advantage anymore for rebuilding teams. With the new draft lottery odds going into effect this year, having one of the three worst records is all that matters for getting the #1 pick.
The way the standings are right now the Suns, Knicks, and Cavaliers all have a 14% chance at the #1 pick. The Bulls have the next worst record, giving them a 12.5% chance at the #1 pick. The Hawks are next in line with a 10.5% chance. Those are small differences, but the lower a team drops in the lottery, the lower they can fall. Tankathon.com has a page on their website that tracks the lottery odds with what percentages each team has at getting certain picks.
Looking at that draft lottery odds table is scary. The team that will end with the worst record will still have a 52.9% chance of falling outside of the top three picks. Teams knew these lottery odds were coming though and they still tanked.
My question is, is it worth it for the Suns to keep losing? Most people would say yes instantly. The Suns don’t have a chance of making the playoffs, so why not keep losing to minimize how far you can fall in the draft? The answer is found by looking at the other teams with the worst records.
The Knicks and Cavs should both finish behind the Suns. The Knicks are not going to win many more games due to the Porzingis trade, and the Cavs are just bad. The Bulls are finally getting healthy and they got better at the deadline by adding Otto Porter Jr. They are 3.5 games ahead of the Suns, so it is safe to assume that they will have a better record.
The Hawks are 8.5 games ahead of the Suns, so there is no chance of catching them. This means that the Suns should be locked into having one of the three worst records in the NBA, so it is okay to win some games.
My suggestion is to treat the last 20 games like they are their own season. There are plenty of winnable games left and I think this team has the capability to finish 8-12. That is a .400 winning percentage which is way better than the current .194 winning percentage. If that record pushes them ahead of the Bulls, so be it. Their chances would only decrease by 1.5 percent.
This team has a lot of young talent and just came off a good team win against the Heat. Finishing this season strong would be huge for the young guys’ confidence, and it would put hope in many fans’ eyes. The fans deserve it after what they have gone through this season.