How can Deandre Ayton prove that he’s the next Shaquille O’Neal?

Phoenix Suns first overall selection Deandre Ayton has been compared to Shaquille O’Neal. How can he play his rookie season to make sure he lives up to that standard?

Shaquille O’Neal broke into the NBA and dominated from the moment he stepped onto the court. Grabbing 18 boards in game one, 35 points in game three, 9 blocks in game 45 (he blocked 5 or more 23 times that year) then ending his rookie season with 23.4 points, 13.9 boards, and 3.5 blocks per game.

His rookie season was a something to behold.

Those kinds of numbers for rookie Deandre Ayton would be mind-blowing. Shaq took Orlando from a team that went 21-61 in 1991-92 to 41-41 in one season, without Anfernee Hardaway.

Imagine if Ayton put those stats together with Devin Booker?

An easy-enough prediction would be that they might win 41 games as well and still miss out on the playoffs, just like Orlando.

That kind of a stat line would be incredible, arguably the greatest rookie season in franchise history. It would make a huge mark on the franchise and be a gigantic stepping off point for the future.

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Not only that, but like Shaq, if he put up those stats as a rookie, growth would inevitably be expected and the next steps of Ayton’s career might be somewhere near Shaq’s.

But is this too much to expect from Ayton? Worse, if he doesn’t come anywhere near Shaq’s stats, and if the team doesn’t win many games, would there be undue pressure on Ayton to take a giant  leap forward in 2019-20?

It is actually fascinating to see how just 50% to 75% of Shaq’s stats in one season places Ayton on an immediate fulcrum that could teeter in one of two directions right away: bust, or future star.

So what if Ayton can only produce half of Shaq’s stats? It would equate to 11.7 points, 6.95 rebounds, and 1.75 blocks per game.

Some fans might be okay with that and see it as a stepping stone low enough that it truly attainable while also high enough that it allows for any use of the term “bust” to be delayed for at least another season.

That said, for a player not only selected first overall, but the first drafted “franchise” big man Phoenix has ever had, who is a local boy via Tucson, those stats would cause many  fans to fear the worst.

And before you immediately dismiss the idea of Ayton ever being a bust as poppycock, remember Michael Olowakandi.

Olowakandi averaged 22.2 points and 11.2 rebounds per game his junior year at Pacific, (Ayton averaged 20.1 points and 11.6 rebounds per game at Arizona) and too was the first player selected in the draft, all the way back in 1999.

We certainly do not expect Ayton to be anywhere near as disappointing as ‘Kandi, but as we stand today, there is no guarantee that he won’t.

But the low-end aside (Please, God let that be the absolute low-end)  what if Ayton averaged 75% of Shaq’s rookie stats. How would he fare?

How does 17.6 points, 10.4 rebounds, and 2.6 blocks per game sound?

Although only three-quarters of what Shaq averaged, if Ayton walked away from this season with that stat line, that would be huge  for both he and the franchise.

Stat lines like that do not come around very often for a rookie (Karl Anthony-Towns averaged 18.3 points and 10.5 rebounds his rookie year in 2015-16 but before that, you have to go back to 2010-11 and Blake Griffin‘s monster 22.5 points and 12.1 rebounds rookie year).

But as both Ayton’s mind and body matures it would not be fair to expect that at least scoring-wise he could average something along the lines of Shaq’s 23.4 points per game next year, and possibly upwards of 12 rebounds as well.

Unlike Shaq, KAT, and Blake though, none of those bigs came to a team that already had a tremendous wing on the roster (the perfect combination for competitive teams).

Ayton has that built in with Devin Booker.

By playing with Book, Ayton too could score about 50% of Shaq’s rookie stats but rebound closer to 75% (or even above) and not fall into the potential bust category as his defensive performance would outweigh what he lacked in offensive output.

We’ll see if sharing the ball with Book right away helps or hurts Ayton’s stats (any knowledgeable fan could definitely see it going in either direction), and there is a chance that Ayton finishes the year on the lower end of the 50-75% of Shaq’s rookie season that I have laid out and still look like a potentially great  player because of the way he gelled with Book.

We’re not too far away from beginning to find out the answers to each of these questions, all of which the whole of the Valley of the Suns are anxious to know.

If Deandre Ayton is truly the next Shaquille O’Neal, then only time will tell how great he can make the Phoenix Suns be.