Deandre Ayton was tied for first in Rookie of the Year votes in the Rookie Survey, but the Phoenix Suns new center isn’t a good bet to win the award.
With the first pick in the 2018 NBA Draft, Deandre Ayton became the newest member of the Phoenix Suns. He was the consensus best player in the draft, and he clearly has the respect of his peers. In the long run, Ayton may end up being the right pick at number one, but right now he’s not a good bet to win Rookie of the Year.
In years past, playing for the Suns and being even a decent scorer has meant putting up impressive scoring numbers in blowout losses. That actually bodes well for Rookie of the Year candidates since the award is very much based on raw scoring, rebounding, and assist numbers.
But this year should be different. With so many new pieces to the rotation and far more talent throughout the roster, it will be much harder to find a role. And with a new coach who will have to sort through that mess, it could take some time for Ayton to get comfortable.
Another challenge is the fact that the Phoenix Suns probably won’t be very good. Even with a roster far superior to last year’s, the Suns probably won’t win many games between the challenges of a new coach, new players, and a brutal Western Conference.
Other candidates for Rookie of the Year may end up being more important on better teams.
Tied with Ayton in the Rookie Survey was Collin Sexton, the point guard drafted eighth overall by the Cleveland Cavaliers. Sexton will likely have a starting role on a team that pushes for a playoff spot even without LeBron James. After all, they still have Kevin Love and other decent players in a very weak Eastern Conference.
In third place was third overall pick Luka Doncic, who’s probably the best bet to win Rookie of the Year. The Dallas Mavericks won’t make the playoffs, but they’ll still be better than the Suns. Between Doncic himself, Dennis Smith, Harrison Barnes, and DeAndre Jordan, they have the pieces to be fairly competitive.
Doncic is 19-years-old, and he’s already won an MVP award in the second best league in the world. He very well could be the best and most productive player on a team that out-performs expectations.
The Phoenix Suns probably won’t win as many games as either of these teams, and Ayton may struggle to find his niche to start the season. It certainly wouldn’t be a surprise if Ayton took home the Rookie of the Year award, but there are other players more likely to win it.