Counterpoint: Phoenix Suns center Deandre Ayton will win RoY

Number one overall pick Deandre Ayton and number eight overall pick Collin Sexton were picked by the fellow rookies to win the Rookie of the Year award this season. Phoenix Suns center Deandre Ayton will win the award.

For the first time in their history, the Phoenix Suns received the first overall pick and with it the right to select who they believed to be the best player in the draft. That player, of course, was center Deandre Ayton.

It should be noted that the first overall pick doesn’t always win the Rookie of the Year award (although that player has won it three out of the last four seasons), centers are supposedly a dying breed in the NBA (although Karl-Anthony Towns won the award two years ago), and rookies don’t have the best track record of selecting the winner only choosing Kevin Durant correctly back in 2007, so based on these variables, the odds aren’t entirely in Ayton’s favor.

However, what makes me so confident that Ayton will win the award is because of the situation he is in, the growth and step forward that the team is expected to make, and the relative situations of his closest competitors.

Phoenix Suns

While the same can be said about any number of rookies, Deandre Ayton is going to walk into the 2018-19 season as a starter; he is going to receive as many minutes per game as he can handle allowing him the opportunity to have potentially boosted statistics; and he is on a team finally on the rise, likely winning well more than the 21 games they won last season, which will, in part, be attributed to Ayton and his presence on the roster all boosting his argument to win the award.

At least from a Suns perspective, he is going to have the best argument to be in the Rookie of the Year discussion better than any player really since Amar’e Stoudemire. He’s going to be counted on, the team is going to be improved, and his statistics will illustrate this.

Certainly I do not expect Ayton to run away with the award as I would presume it to be a close race like Stoudemire’s was in with Yao Ming.

Evidence of this is from the percentage of rookies who selected Ayton as their presumptive RoY choice was only 18% (the lowest in the poll’s history) due in large part to how deep the draft class really was.

That said, Luka Doncic isn’t in that great of a position to win the award because he is on a more veteran team, one that already has Dennis Smith Jr. running point (the rookie’s pick for RoY in 2017). He’ll get a lot of run, but in a crowded Dallas back court. Not to mention, he’s coming from Europe where the game is played differently. While I certainly do not expect Doncic to fail,  I also do not expect him to have a blazing start early on, likely pulling a Josh Jackson where his first half negates a potentially improved second half.

Collin Sexton is joining a team who will most likely make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference, however as his game is so one-sided as a score-first player, I don’t expect that his statistics will be well-rounded enough to actually pull himself above the pack.

Jaren Jackson Jr. and Mohammed Bamba are too one-sided as well each favoring the defensive-side of the game, and each are expected to take time to fully develop their games anyway, presumably taking both players out of the running very early on.

I could see Kevin Knox being in the running for the award throughout the year as he is in a situation similar to Ayton in Phoenix, only his franchise’s star player will be out until around the All-Star break giving him plenty of time to fill the stat box. What could hurt him most is if the team doesn’t win many games. If they hover around 20 wins like last season, his ability to shoot won’t be enough to catapult him to the top of the list.

Devonte’ Graham is in a similar situation to Knox, however, with his team’s star player potentially on his way out (through trade), Charlotte is going to struggle mightily. Although again, not winning 30+ games, especially in an Eastern Conference that is so terribly weak from top to bottom, will hurt Graham’s chances.

Trae Young is in a similar situation to Graham and Knox, and like Knox, if he can score enough he will look good. If his overall collegiate offensive game carries to the NBA and he can not only average double-digit scoring but also at least 5 assists while making a lot of flashy 3’s, he’ll make a strong run at the award as well. Losing 60+ games might severely hurt his chances as well, however if he really does look like Stephen Curry, he might be the one player that voters won’t care about the record because his game will look all too familiar.

That said, unless Young really does something spectacular on offense, he is likely to fall short to a player like Ayton who, with similar scoring numbers and superior rebounding on a team that is expected to win more than Atlanta, will hold the upper-hand.

Of course like 2016-17 and Malcolm Brogdon who drafted 36th overall came out of nowhere to win the Rookie of the Year award, someone from outside of those discussed here could swoop in and surprise everyone (Mikal Bridges, maybe?). Just sayin’.

However, in that unlikely event, if the Phoenix Suns show improvement, if Ayton takes advantage of the minutes he’ll be given and average a double-double like I predicted here – or at least close to), I have no doubt that he will win the 2019 NBA Rookie of the Year award.

Previous Phoenix Suns Rookie of the Year award winners:

Alvan Adams – 1976

Walter Davis – 1978

Amar’e Stoudemire – 2003