Don’t worry, I’m not saying that the Phoenix Suns are in any way a shoe-in for the playoffs, but the Kawhi Leonard to Toronto trade might help Phoenix’s chances to sneak in slightly.
As you are no doubt aware, the Phoenix Suns have not made the playoffs since 2010 when they lost to the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference Finals. With two complete re-boots in that time frame, and now hopefully finally at the end of the tank-for-the-rebuild process, fans can expect the franchise to make a push for the playoffs, even if the team ends up falling short.
Devin Booker said at the end of last regular season that he will never miss the playoffs again, and with the addition of Deandre Ayton, Mikal Bridges, and Trevor Ariza, it can be assumed that the team is going to do whatever possible to get as close as they can to making Booker’s goal a reality.
But more than just rebuilding the roster, the Suns need teams who have recently been ahead of them in the standings to drop off. With Kawhi Leonard sitting out the year and it became more and more likely that he would never play for the San Antonio Spurs again, it seemed possible that the Spurs might just be one of those teams that Phoenix could leap-frog.
And then we saw what they got in return.
Last season, in one of the tightest conference races in memory, the Spurs finished with a 47-35 record without Kawhi. Granted, that was good enough for them to make the playoffs, it was also only one game above the ninth spot in the West so there was a definite sign that the franchise was possibly slipping.
Aside from Kawhi, their roster is aging and a full roster turnover will be a necessity at some point in the near future, but even with such an issue they were still able to finish just three games below 50 wins and earn a playoff spot, as weak as their chances of getting far in the playoffs were.
Thus, with Kawhi demanding out, and the chances that the Spurs were not going to get anywhere near as great a player as him in return, the reality of San Antonio finally slipping some might be coming to fruition.
For Leonard, the main player in return is shooting guard/small forward DeMar DeRozan. Arguably Toronto’s best player and one of the top-40 players in the league, DeRozan is a nice player and by all accounts will help San Antonio, potentially keeping the Spurs in the playoffs this season based on their record without Leonard last year.
However, Paul Gasol is now 38 and his talents are diminishing. LaMarcus Aldridge had a bit of a renaissance season last year in Kawhi’s absence, although at 33, it is difficult to imagine that his stats will continue along last year’s path. Backcourt icon Tony Parker has split to the east coast signing with the Charlotte Hornets, and 6th man extraordinaire Manu Ginobili (who is now 40) has yet to confirm his 2018-19 plans for next season, although with his age his impact is minimal.
Sure, the Spurs have a few nice players in Kyle Anderson, Danny Green, and Dejounte Murray, but none of them have the type of talent or star power to be leaders of the team.
Rudy Gay is a nice role player at this point in his career as well, but is by no means a central figure on a roster any longer.
That then brings us back to DeRozen. He is good. Averaging 23.0 points per game last season and over 20.0 a game for the last five years, placing him on a roster that lacked Leonard but still make the playoffs will certainly be an improvement on paper.
But there is no doubt: he was at his best when on the court beside Kyle Lowry – his best friend – and San Antonio doesn’t have a point guard of note who is capable of being the facilitator that DeRozen needs. He is also not happy to have been traded to San Antonio so even if he is at his competitive best, there may be a subconscious or or even conscious drop-off in his play this coming year.
Don’t get me wrong, this is the San Antonio Spurs we are talking about and Gregg Popovich is still their head coach, for now. But the roster has it’s issues, and in an ever competitive and tightening Western Conference, age, injuries, and a lack of proper cohesion could cause San Antonio to slip just enough to fall out of the playoffs for the first time since (no exaggeration) the Bill Clinton Administration. That is, 1997.
So does this really make a playoff run for the Phoenix Suns any easier?
Eh, slightly.
As the team with the worst record in the league, the Suns would have to leapfrog seven teams just to reach the eighth seed in the Western Conference, meaning that at least one team who was in the playoffs last season would also need to drop out.
It is possible that the Spurs could be that team, however at least three teams ahead of Phoenix in last season’s standings who also missed the playoffs are going to make a leap as well: Memphis (who will have their full compliment of stars back after tons of injuries last season), the Lakers (who have added LeBron James, ’nuff said), and Denver who have added Isaiah Thomas (for what it’s worth).
(Obviously The LeLakers are getting into the playoffs, although there is no guarantee that Memphis or Denver will. Also, Minnesota could slip back out, and while they won 48 games in 2017-18, New Orleans made the playoffs by only two games, so should there be any injuries or a couple of players who pulled the Pelicans up last season slip themselves, even they could be a team looking in at the playoffs from the outside. Unlikely, I know, but this piece is all about speculation anyway.)
In 2017-18, the eighth seed, held by the apparently imploding Minnesota Timberwolves, snuck in with 47-35 record (tied with San Antonio), while the Nuggets missed out with a 46-36 record. If that trend stays exactly the same this season (which it won’t, but it’ll likely be close), Phoenix would have to make a 26-game leap in the win column, something that one would assume would be very difficult to pull off.
That said, if the eighth seed in the West in 2019 only needs, say 43-45 wins, while that is still a large leap for Phoenix, with a team like San Antonio potentially being someone who could slip out of the back end of the playoffs race, it could be possible for the Suns to sneak in if they are able to raise their level of competitiveness by any statistical capacity.
Next: The focus for the Phoenix Suns is now on trades
As I said in the intro, they are by no means a shoe-in, and the roster isn’t that much better than last season’s. However, if they were to take a leap in the win-column, the trade of Kawhi Leonard to the Toronto Raptors, and the Spurs’ acquisition of DeRozan, might have made Phoenix’s chances slightly greater.