And with the first pick of the 2018 NBA draft the Phoenix Suns select . . .
DeAndre Ayton.
It seems fairly per-ordained at this point that the Phoenix Suns will select Deandre Ayton out of the University of Arizona with the first overall pick.
That is exactly what I am expecting to happen on Thursday night. I just don’t see Suns owner Robert Sarver and General Manager Ryan McDonough going against the Ayton-hype in Phoenix.
But is it the right choice in a league that is seeing exclusively post players disappear?
This is probably where many of you argue that Ayton is super versatile and has the elite combination of modern and old skills. If you don’t believe me, read this piece by Kellan Olson of Arizona Sports.
As of right now I view Ayton as an exclusively post player that might have potential to become a somewhat versatile scorer, but I don’t expect him to ever become as versatile as Karl-Anthony Towns or Joel Embiid. Those guys are special and already had most of the skills necessary to be a versatile scorer.
Lets rewind back to the 2002 NBA draft.
The Houston Rockets took the best post player available in Yao Ming with the first pick. While Yao became a very good player, I would argue that the best player in the draft was taken with the 9th pick:
Amar’e Stoudemire, a guy who never, ever played with his back to the basket. An exclusively not-post player. STAT relied on his quickness and dribbling to take a big guy down low. He also developed an elite mid-range jumper.
When the Phoenix Suns played the San Antonio Spurs (or any team, really), Amar’e would get the ball in the mid-range area and shoot over Tim Duncan or jab and drive by him with his quickness.
Tim Duncan was no match for Amar’e on the defensive end.
Are the Suns (the team that maximized Stoudemire’s talents to become the first modern center) about to take the best post player available with the first pick?
Don’t get me wrong, Deandre Ayton is a top-five pick. But do you really want to take a post player with the first pick.
Their are two centers who have shown the capability to be great modern bigs that are worthy of the number one pick in my mind: Marvin Bagley and Jaren Jackson Jr.
Bagley has the potential to be very similar to Amar’e Stoudemire in many ways. While Bagley is an awesome post player, I think his future is taking bigs like Andre Drummond, Joel Embiid, and Deandre Ayton off the dribble from the mid-range shot like Stoudemire, and posting up on small-ball fives like Draymond Green.
Bagley may not ever be a great three-point shooter, but he could develop a knockdown mid-range jump shot like STAT.
Jaren Jackson Jr could look a lot like Al Horford.
Many of you are probably screaming at this point, saying “you would rather select Embiid (Ayton’s comparison) than Horford?!”
Did you watch when the two went head-to-head?
Granted, Embiid is inexperienced, but Horford dominated him, the positional matchup that was the difference in the series.
Horford was able to draw Embiid out with his three-point shot and drive by him even though he is old and not a freak athlete. Embiid couldn’t protect the rim and could not stay in front of guys on the perimeter.
While Embiid did do well on the offensive end, Horford was able to stop him from putting up crazy numbers because of his great technique and abilities and overall strength.
Phoenix Suns
Jaren Jackson looks very similar athletically. Neither are freaks, but both move well enough to guard multiple positions and have the coordination to dribble and shoot. Likewise, JJJ has great technique at the defensive end that will enable him to be a great defender.
Jackson doesn’t have the shot creation ability/potential as Ayton, but could become a Defensive Player of the Year and impact the game just as much on offense by providing space and switching on to smaller players without getting beat as Horford did against Embiid.
Drafting Ayton is going backwards instead of forward. While many Ayton fanatics argue the league is cyclical, I just don’t see it cycling back towards the post. In 2001 Jerry Colangelo and a committee changed the rules to change the style.
To sum the article up, Colangelo wanted to change the game because lots of isolation and fouling made it hard to watch basketball. The illegal defensive rule was replaced with the defensive three second violation. Post ups became easier to guard.
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Shooters also began to be protected by the referees.
The NBA is popular right now because of the three-point shot and fast-paced game. Hakeem Olajuwon wouldn’t thrive in today’s NBA – or tomorrow’s.
Drafting Ayton is a big risk because he doesn’t fit the current NBA style at all. Drafting Bagley or JJJ would make much more sense, no matter what Charles Barkley thinks.