The Phoenix Suns have the first overall pick in the NBA draft and the assets to pull off a major trade. After selecting DeAndre Ayton, Phoenix should trade back up for…Marvin Bagley III.
The cost would be steep.
But it would be worth it.
If the Phoenix Suns want to draft DeAndre Ayton so be it. I believe Marvin Bagley is a better player, but it sounds like the Suns will draft Ayton with the first pick.
Ayton will be a very good NBA player but hardly has any faceup game, which is critical in today’s NBA game. If Ayton doesn’t develop much of a faceup or perimeter style, the Suns will struggle to use him effectively because his only efficient offense will come from post-ups.
Cole Zwicker of The Stepien details the problems with post-ups in the current NBA landscape.
"Some of this concept is captured in Towns’ postseason post performance. He was efficient there, but due to a lack of consistent ability to carve out and hold position inside and partly due to teammates not fully optimizing him there, his impact against the Rockets especially early in the series was minimal: Karl Anthony Towns Playoff Post Ups in the Half Court (Finishing Possessions Highlighted) It’s just easier by sheer common sense for the opposition to take away post up opportunities than perimeter creation opportunities, a reality Towns learned the hard way in round one. The last point on post ups here is the obvious point that we hear ad nauseam — it’s not efficient offense. Indulge in Anthony Davis’ (the best offensive big in the league in my opinion) finishing playtype stats in the playoffs: Anthony Davis Playoff Post Ups & P&R Roll Man Finishing Possessions in the Half Court Bringing post up capability at any position but especially for bigs is valuable, but more so as a bailout option and lineup dictator (or to pass or draw fouls out of) than actual routine self-created offense. It’s getting harder and harder to really believe that a team can win a title given the trajectory of the modern game with it’s principle offensive vehicle being post play, but it’s still a key trait/threat to have that really rounds out versatility."
If Ayton can’t develop the faceup game he is still good, just 16 points and 10 rebounds in a playoff game good, not an offensive cornerstone.
He’ll be good enough to get you some buckets down low, maybe even good enough to get 20 in a playoff game with a spike in scoring here or there, but that will come with a price.
Feeding Ayton on pos- ups will make the offense inefficient because feeding him will take away chances for perimeter players, namely Devin Booker and Josh Jackson, who are most effective in the lane and shooting 3’s like Golden State or Houston.
With DeAndre Ayton, the Suns will be playing the same type of basketball that was played in the 90’s: control the paint and win without shooting a lot.
However, the Suns will need to be able to really control the paint. Small ball center Clint Capela showed the ability to stop Karl-Anthony Towns, who is much more skilled than Ayton, and could slow down Ayton as well.
Ayton will likely not dominate the paint by himself.
He is 260, although nowhere near 340 like Shaq was with Los Angeles in 1999. The Suns will consistently get outplayed by perimeter oriented teams in the first and second rounds of the playoffs.
Whether you like it or not, Ayton will likely struggle to get the Suns to the Conference Finals if they try to be interior oriented with just Ayton.
That is why, if you are drafting a Hakeem Olajuwon, then you need to also acquire a Ralph Sampson.