When the Phoenix Suns send in their draft card to Commissioner Adam Silver, it will have DeAndre Ayton‘s name on it. Selecting the center from Arizona means that the Suns are part of a new wave of teams with dominant centers that are soon to dominate the NBA.
The current fad of a guard-centric league has been steadily building due to the overwhelming success of the Golden State Warriors who have maximized the skill-set of two of the greatest shooters in the history of the league as well as one of the best unicorns. That group transcended the league and changed the way the game was played forcing 29 other teams to try and copy cat.
Then they added Kevin Durant.
If the Phoenix Suns were to draft Luka Doncic first overall, passing over DeAndre Ayton, they’d essentially be advertising to the league that they are attempting to copy the Golden State Warriors’ model. While on paper this sounds exciting, it is a very risky and almost impossible task to undertake.
There is no way that the Phoenix Suns – or any other team in the league – can ever duplicate what Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green are able to accomplish.
The Suns do not have that kind of natural shooters on the roster, nor do they have anyone who can do what Green does on both the offensive and defensive ends. Lest we forget the fact that they arguably have the second best player in the league in Durant as well.
But by drafting DeAndre Ayton, the Phoenix Suns have the opportunity to be a part of the next wave of great teams, those with uber-talented centers who are do-it-all’s on both the offensive and defensive ends. A player of Ayton’s skill-set will not only allow him to help hold off other great centers such as Anthony Davis, Karl-Anthony Towns, Joel Embiid, and talented stretch players like Durant, Kristaps Porzingis, and even Giannis Antetokounmpo, but he will also be one of the great matchup nightmares that opposing teams will have to worry about game-in and game-out.
Should the Suns draft Luka Doncic, they will have an offensive-minded guard that they also currently lack, who will help them keep up the pace against teams like the Warriors and Houston Rockets, yet they will still lack the frontcourt anchor to hold down other centers, and even those like Clint Capela and DeAndre Jordan who regularly rough Phoenix up.
While Luka’s height presents individual matchup problems for opponents on defense, guards can be singled out, their weaknesses and flaws exploited, and through team defense can be held down to a degree. I certainly do not believe that if Luka is as good as many believe that he will ever really be shut down, nor do I believe that guards are more easily shut down than bigs. However the ability for a team to place a lockdown defender on a guard is much easier to accomplish than on a big like Ayton – that very notion is what makes Josh Jackson and his defensive abilities to be so valuable to the Suns as he can be placed on the opponent’s best player, even if they are a point guard.
On the offensive end, Ayton’s size and strength will eventually allow him to impose his will in the post where he will eat up smaller and less athletic defenders. His ability too to step back and drain mid-range shots and even 3’s will help to neutralize the defensive ability of some of the league’s best bigs like Davis, Towns, and Embiid.
At that point, all a guard would need to do is get him the ball and get out of the way. The flow of the game can go though him, as it often does in Minnesota, New Orleans, and Philadelphia, and Ayton’s natural ability and skills will take over.
But what is so special about having a player of Ayton’s talent and ability is that at this moment in the league, there are very few bigs who can do what people presume Ayton can do.
In fact in history there have been very few bigs who can do what Ayton and the aforementioned bigs can do.
League general managers are not ignoring the unique ability of these players and their impact on games, and the inability of most defenses from being unable to lock them down and neutralize their ability to control a game. These centers are going to slowly become the central idea behind team’s offenses and change the way the game is played once again.
As the Golden State Warriors slow down with age (a process that is bound to happen at some point), then generational centers will re-take the mantle of what is needed to have a dominant team.
Teams like the Phoenix Suns (presuming Ayton works out), Philadelphia 76ers, and Minnesota Timberwolves, are all on the forefront of the new wave of teams with dominant centers who have the assets and money to build around them before those center’s contracts reach max necessity. (Unfortunately for the New Orleans Pelicans, it will take some very creative moves to try to add another superstar talent next to Davis to try and pull them over the top as it took them too long to find that player and he is already making $25M+ for the next three years before he signs his next big contract).
Those teams are poised to be at the forefront of the best teams in the league for the next decade while their star centers become more and more difficult to defend and their offenses run through them.
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For the Phoenix Suns, drafting DeAndre Ayton gives them the opportunity to be at that forefront, using his skills and ability, coupled with Devin Booker and Josh Jackson, to create matchup issues that only a hand full of teams will be able to compete against.
The next evolution of the game of basketball will have athletic centers at the heart of the roster, and once the Golden State Warriors fall off, the Phoenix Suns and DeAndre Ayton will be poised to have the opportunity to take over that mantle as one of the best teams in the NBA.