Why drafting DeAndre Ayton is a huge risk for the Suns

DeAndre Ayton is potentially a world class center as he enters the NBA. But is there a defensive risk there for the Phoenix Suns?

Many Phoenix Suns fans have a hard time watching the NBA Playoffs due to the eight-year playoff drought. Knowing your team isn’t there, and hasn’t been there for a long time can be excruciating. Watching Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, who were both picked right before Dragan Bender and Josh Jackson, have big games in the Eastern Conference Finals is particularly hard for a Suns fan to bear.

But the NBA Playoffs also showcase winning strategies and winning teams. Every decision in the draft and free agency should be influenced by these teams and their winning strategies.

The Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors series was very intriguing as both teams are usually running without a traditional center in the regular rotation. This certainly isn’t because both teams have terrible centers, but because their centers cannot keep up with the other teams guards and wings on the perimeter.

Jonathan Tjarks  of The Ringer explains why the Rockets have stopped giving Clint Capela so much time on the court.

"The lineup numbers are striking. Houston’s starters (Harden, Paul, Ariza, Tucker, and Capela) have a net rating of minus-24.7 in 43 minutes in the series. Replace Capela with Gordon and that number shoots up to plus-7.4 in 38 minutes."

That is a plus-minus differential of 32 points!

Just by replacing Capela with a below average defender the plus or minus goes up by a lot. Part of the difference is due to Gordon’s ability to score, but a large chunk of it is that he can keep up with guys on the perimeter.

Capela isn’t the only center who is having trouble staying on the court. Hassan Whiteside only played 77 minutes against the Philadelphia 76ers. Gobert and Embiid were both ineffective on defense when they played.

The fact is, centers aren’t playable in the playoffs anymore. That is why the Warriors, Rockets, and Celtics have all made it to the conference playoffs. Both teams are willing to go small ball and attack other team’s bigs, scoring at will.

Now, obviously there are a few ways that a center could become important again, but as of right now they aren’t playable in the playoffs if they can’t stay in front of guards.

Lets look at a few ways that DeAndre Ayton could potentially stay on the court.

1. Some believe that Ayton has the potential to keep up with guards and wings. If Ayton could do this, he would be able to stay on the court, as teams like Houston would be unsuccessful attacking him on the perimeter.

However, as previously mentioned, Clint Capela couldn’t keep up with the Warriors’ offense. Capela actually moves pretty well, which means Ayton will need to move even faster.

2. Many believe the best way to beat the Warriors is to not try to copycat them but to beat them up inside with post players. While this type of strategy could work against small ball lineups, Ayton would have to be extremely efficient because he will be a target on the defensive end. Ayton would have to become an elite post player to make up for his defensive deficiencies.

But if Ayton doesn’t become the next Shaq, it won’t be good enough.

3. The only other possibility for Ayton to be able to stay on the floor would be for the Suns to do something different on than switching Ayton onto a guard or wing. Try a mix between zone and man defense? Don’t switch on the screen? None of these seem like realistic options, and cannot be counted on for Head Coach Igor Kokoskov or a future coach to come up with.

Next: The Phoenix Suns should trade up to draft Mo Bamba

It is clear to see from the playoffs that DeAndre Ayton is much more of a risk than many Suns fans think.

While Ayton might be an All-Star in the regular season, if he can’t stay on the court at the end of a playoff game because James Harden attacks him on a high screen and roll then Ayton will not be able to help carry the Phoenix Suns to the eventual goal – an NBA championship.