Valley of the Suns
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Can the Phoenix Suns make the 2018 playoffs?

By Adam Maynes

PHOENIX, AZ - JANUARY 7: Devin Booker #1 of the Phoenix Suns high fives fans after the game against the Oklahoma City Thunder on January 7, 2018 at Talking Stick Resort Arena in Phoenix, Arizona. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2018 NBAE (Photo by Barry Gossage/NBAE via Getty Images)
PHOENIX, AZ - JANUARY 7: Devin Booker #1 of the Phoenix Suns high fives fans after the game against the Oklahoma City Thunder on January 7, 2018 at Talking Stick Resort Arena in Phoenix, Arizona. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2018 NBAE (Photo by Barry Gossage/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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So let’s do a little simple math.

DENVER, CO – JANUARY 3: Coach Jay Triano of the Phoenix Suns coaches the team against the Denver Nuggets on January 3, 2018 at the Pepsi Center in Denver, Colorado. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2018 NBAE (Photo by Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images)
DENVER, CO – JANUARY 3: Coach Jay Triano of the Phoenix Suns coaches the team against the Denver Nuggets on January 3, 2018 at the Pepsi Center in Denver, Colorado. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2018 NBAE (Photo by Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images) /

Let’s say that the Suns win only 20% of their games against currently slotted playoff teams, and 60% against teams not currently in the playoffs. If they do manage this, Phoenix Suns would finish 5-24 against current playoff teams and 10-6 against non-playoff teams. This gives the Suns a 15-30 record the rest of the way, which allows them to finish the season with about a 31-51 record.

That’s just not going to be good enough to make the playoffs.

Now, the Suns are really beginning to gel. Triano’s practices and adjustment of philosophy are finally making a difference in the way the team plays its game. I’m certainly not going to go crazy and say that they are going to make a huge run at some point, but they could do a little bit better and win even up to 35% against current playoff teams and 80% against current non-playoff teams. If Phoenix pulled this off, they would go 10-19 against current playoff teams and 13-3 against non-playoff teams which equates to 23-22, and a full season with 39 wins, which would mean about 43 losses.

Even though they are currently only five games out of 8th place, the Suns would need to win at a much greater clip than they currently are to even reach .500 on the year. At their current pace (.381), they would finish the season at about 31-51, the same as winning 20% against playoff teams and 60% against non-playoff teams.

To finish at 41-41 they would need to go 25-15 the rest of the way, or .625 – highly unlikely.

Every season is different so you never exactly how many wins it would take to make the playoffs, but over the past five seasons, the 8th place finisher in the West had (beginning from last season), 41 wins, 41 wins, 45 wins, 49 wins, and 45 wins.

The New Orleans Pelicans are currently .500 which puts their pace at 41-41 as well.

As mentioned, at the moment, the Suns are only 5 games back of New Orleans, with two games against them left. If the task were to only makeup five games, it would certainly not be unheard of for the Suns to sweep those two games and have a few other things fall their way and climb up five games (presuming no one else out of the playoffs in the West does the same thing) and steal that spot.

Next: Phoenix Suns Midseason Grades

At the same time though, as optimistic as anyone of us wants to be, it just seems that based on those teams they have to play the rest of the season, that it is going to be awfully tough.

Right now I am very happy with the Suns remaining competitive. I would be absolutely over the moon if they managed to make the playoffs, even if it meant a four-game sweep at the hands of the Golden State Warriors. At the same time, those really high lottery picks are awfully inviting, especially with several of them appearing to be near NBA ready and future NBA superstars themselves.

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