It has long been understood that draft position is an almost meaningless representation of how good a player may become in their professional career.
Just ask Isaiah Thomas who was the final pick of the 2011 draft, or Anthony Bennett, who was selected first overall.
For Dragan Bender, the expectations heaped upon him as the fourth overall selection in the 2016 NBA Draft were so based solely on his position in the draft, and not on the statistics he accumulated prior to being picked.
It has often been explained (or used as an excuse for his slow professional start) that Dragan’s time in Europe should be taken with a grain of salt because talented young players are usually benched in favor of veterans. In otherwords, they make a player earn their playing time and Dragan being so young was never afforded the opportunity to perform, even if his skill set demanded early playing time to develop it.
He rookie year with the Suns was thus a disappointment because fans generally expect a significant return on the franchise’s investment, and not the 3.4 points, 2.4 rebounds, and .5 assists he would average. Then even after such a poor statistical showing, a rain of expectations have continued to be poured upon him as Earl Watson compared him to Lamar Odom, while others have proclaimed a hope that his peak talent somewhere in the realm of Kristaps Porzingis.
Either way, who he might be statistically in five years at the beginning of his prime is entirely speculative and no matter when discussing the present. The problem is, with such a poor rookie year statistically, fans will never project such lofty outcomes if he doesn’t show serious improvement in 2017-18.
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Granted, the statistics that I referenced above are per game is a somewhat unfair representation of his rookie year as of the 43 games he appeared in he played for under ten minutes 15 times. But if you use his per-36 minute stats, then suddenly his numbers look a lot more palatable at 9.2 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 1.4 assists.
Following the return from his unfortunately timed injury in January too, his final five games weren’t bad either, though lower than the per-36, with 5.0 points, 4.2 rebounds, .2 assists, and .6 blocks in 18.4 minutes per game. (Double that and he’s almost right at the per-36 minutes, and thus his averages again look significantly better).
Before I discuss what fans need to see from him, I would be remiss to ignore his shooting statistics which were God-awful last year. In his final five games he shot 29.7% from the field, while shooting 10.0% from beyond the arc, and 33% from the free throw line, although only 1-3 total.
Those numbers would scare anyone, but what’s worse is that his full season stats were almost nowhere near better with a 35.4% from the field, 27.7% from three, and 48.3% from the charity stripe.
As shooting is what leads to scoring, having a better shooting average from all over the court is absolutely the first thing that fans need to see improved this season, and without a doubt fans want significant improvement.
No matter how many shots he takes per game – based on his evolution in the system, playing time, and health – if he could reach a level of about 45% from the field, and 33% from three, that improvement would absolutely begin to assuage fan’s negativity should he begin to nail jumpers with greater efficiency.
If he does this, then Head Coach Earl Watson will have no choice but to play him, thus raising his scoring average. From that baseline, if he could become a guaranteed member of the rotation, and hopefully reach about 20 minutes per game, then doubling his scoring average to about 6.8-7.0 would be a great jump over last season.
For a player compared to Lamar Odom by his head coach, one might then assume that assists would be a central focus of his statistical slashline. And yet, not only did he only average .5 per game last season, even his 1.4 per-36 minutes is nothing special.
Regardless of whether or not he does develop into a 3D kind of player in the future akin to what the Suns had with Boris Diaw, let alone a star of Lamar Odom’s former stature, if Bender is going to be a perimeter player where passing is vital, if he could reach 2.0 assists this coming season, per game, this stat alone would be a sign of decent development in his offensive awareness, and hopefully a sign that his shooting has come up enough that defenders work harder to take shots away from him meaning that quick dishes to other open shooters have helped him pad his stats.
But while his offensive numbers aren’t going to reach levels of the stars of his draft just yet, there is no denying his defensive ability and awareness are already at a level that is impressive for a young European transplant.
There is no denying that his best flashes of talent last season came on the defensive end, and his aggressiveness on the boards is something that will continue to help keep him in a lineup, even if his scoring continues to lag behind.
In lineups that often placed him with rebound geniuses Alan Williams or Tyson Chandler, Bender was still able to average 2.4 boards per outing. Granted that number is low on the surface, but when you consider his situation in the league, and his 4.2 rebounds per 36-minutes, that’s not all that bad as a rookie.
Bender had a minimum of four rebounds in a game 10 times, with a career-high 13 on December 26 at Houston. In his final five games, he had a seven and eight rebound game, the first coming in only 14:09. Suns fans will need to see those kinds of numbers coming far more frequently, which might be difficult with Josh Jackson now on the team presumably vacuuming up boards at a quick clip as well, although with plenty still available for Bender to grab.
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For those who think that such a dramatic improvement is impossible, I ask you to look at the recent statistical development of both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jimmy Butler.
After a poor rookie season and lackluster FIBA performance this summer, Suns fans need to see some improvement from Bender to allow them to have faith in him moving forward. Suns fans need to see Bender double his averages from last year while significantly improving his shooting percentage. If so, fans will be far more endeared to the Croatian Sensation, and hopefully ready to see him be a steady part of the core for many years to come.