The Suns should NOT sign Nerlens Noel

Statistical Analysis

Last season, Nerlens Noel averaged 8.7 points, 5.8 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 1.0 blocks, 1.3 steals, shot 59.5% from the field, 69.4% from the free throw line, and had an offensive rating of 103.0 with a defensive rating of 105.5, all in 20.5 minutes per game.

Alex Len averaged 8.0 points, 6.6 rebounds, .6 assists, 1.3 blocks, .5 steals, shot 49.7% from the field, 72.1% from the free throw line, had a 99.4 offensive rating, and a 110.5 defensive rating, all in 20.3 minutes per game.

Len also averaged 3.1 personal fouls to Noel’s 2.5.

In comparison, in fewer minutes per game, and with a slightly lower offensive rating, Len averaged just .7 points fewer than Noel, but owned a significantly better defensive rating (which, by the way, is often effected by the team around the player – and there is no doubt that Phoenix’s defense was at the bottom of the league last year and one of the worst in franchise history), more rebounds, and more blocks. While Len’s shooting percentage was worse than Noel’s by a decent margin, Noel took a significantly higher percentage of his shots from within three feet of Len (66.2% to 47.4%), while the Suns have also pushed Len to expand his range, where he even stepped back and took a few three’s near the end of the season.

So while neither player is dramatically better than the other statistically (and in traditional stats neither are truly all that special) would it at be worth paying Nerlens Noel upwards of $24M when they can get a statistically similar player at potentially as low as $8M?