The Suns should NOT sign Nerlens Noel

The Cost

It has widely been speculated that Noel will likely earn about $20M per year over the life of his next contract – and it has even been reported that it may require a max contract to obtain his services.

What is specifically driving up that cost is that as a restricted free agent, any team that would want to make a run at him may only be wasting their time as the Dallas Mavericks have all but vowed to match any offer that another franchise might throw at him.

So for a team to even think  about signing Noel, they would have to try and come up with a contract that the richer-than-God Mark Cuban would not be willing to match, which starts at max money, or about $24M his first year. Granted in today’s NBA, not only is that salary nowhere near what true stars are able to make, but it’s about to become totally normal to see a player making over $20M when having only averaged 8.7 points and 5.8 points per game as Noel did last season between Philadelphia and Dallas.

So let’s say that max money might actually scare Cuban off and the Suns knew that starting at $24M a year would be enough to acquire Noel. Do the Suns have the cap space?

Yes and No.

(This math is a little rough, but it’s a close estimate.)

Accoring to whatsthecap.com, the Suns currently have about $13M left under the cap. Should they renounce their rights to Alex Len and make him an unrestricted free agent, they would have about $12M additionally under the cap this season, leaving them with $25M, room enough to sign Noel. However, they just re-signed Alan Williams who will be earning approximately $6M a season for the next three years, leaving the Suns at approximately $19M, no longer enough for Noel.

Should they find a taker for either Tyson Chandler, Jared Dudley, or Brandon Knight, and not take any salary back, they would then once again have a few million in cap space to fit in Noel, a well as the ability to make an additional move or two depending on what comes available. Move two of those three players and the Suns have even more space, although not entirely necessary.

The long-term problem though is that beginning next season the franchise will have to start making decisions on players who, like Noel and Len this offseason, are leaving their rookie contracts. Next offseason will be T.J. Warren. The following year, 2019, will be Devin Booker. 2020 will bring up both Dragan Bender and Marquese Chriss. Should the Suns sign Noel to a four-year deal, they would have to find space to sign each of those players (or make some tough decisions) along the way.

For a player like Noel who has never averaged a double-double, nor has he ever been a member of an All-anything team, the Suns may potentially have their eyes on more established two-way stars in the near future, and a Noel contract could block their way.

Not to mention that statistically – he’s really nothing special.