Suns Squared: Free Agent Analytics

Otto Porter

Otto Porter is the youngest of the group and the only restricted free agent meaning the Suns can only sign him to an offer sheet and the Wizards would be allowed to match it – assuming the Wizards don’t renounce Porter’s rights in order to clear space for a play at Paul George or Carmelo.

Porter’s biggest skills are his three-point shooting and defensive ability. He shot 43% from three last year and was an elite transition finisher running the break with John Wall. Porter scored 1.32 points per possession in transition, good for the 87th percentile, while putting up 1.31 points per possession on spot-up possessions which rank in the 97th percentile. Spot-up (303 possessions) and Transition (180 possessions) were by far Porter’s most often play types and is a good sign that his efficiency could continue.

His next selling point is his defense. While his numbers aren’t great, with a 108 defensive rating and 2.9 defensive win score, defense is difficult to measure statistically so there is a need for a grain of salt. Also, Porter’s numbers are likely artificially deflated because he often took the toughest assignments in order to give Wall and Beal a chance to rest.

For the Suns, Porter’s role would be extremely similar to his role in Washington, he would run the break with Booker and Bledsoe and find openings in transition and during pick and rolls to hit open three’s and layups. Porter could also relieve defensive pressure from Booker and Bledsoe by taking the toughest assignment. The key for Porter is if he can make the leap and add some isolation and post-up scoring ability to his game. Boston exploited him in the playoffs by hiding Isaiah Thomas on him. Too often Porter went to the block but couldn’t take advantage of the severe height disparity.

Any of these free agents would make a great addition to the Suns. The key for the Suns is who to prioritize and how they want to build. Griffin, Hayward, and Millsap would be win-now signings putting the Suns in the position to make runs for the playoffs in the short-term but leaving the long term in a little more question as these players would be on the decline as Booker and the other young assets hit their prime. Porter and Iguodala are different but for different reasons. Porter’s prime would align more closely with the primes of Booker, Chriss, Bender, and Jackson, but he would also play a position that would either push Jackson to the three or push Bender and Chriss to the five. Iguodala, on the other hand, is the oldest of the group and already out of his prime. His role would be to shepherd along the young players and bow out as they reach their primes and the Suns are moving to contend for titles.