Time to breakdown De’Aaron Fox, one-half of the Kentucky backcourt duo, and one of the biggest draft stock winners of the NCAA tournament.
De’Aaron spent most of the season in the shadow of Malik Monk and the other top guards in the country, at least when it came to where experts believed he would be slotted in the NBA draft. That all changed in the Sweet Sixteen when Fox put up 39 points while putting Lonzo Ball through the spin cycle and thrusting himself into the top-5 draft conversation.
Fox’s Sweet Sixteen performance was a microcosm of his personal game as a whole. He displayed elite athleticism; he got to the basket and free throw line with ease; he played fiery defense; he paced Kentucky’s offense; and he downright controlled the game from start to finish.
Fox’s stats back up what can clearly be seen with the eye test. He plays under control, avoids turnovers, distributes when he needs too, gets to the FT line at will, but struggles shooting the ball. Fox has the worst three-point shooting percentages, true shooting percentage, and effective field goal percentage of the top-5 guys. This is clear when you watch Fox this season as he struggled to shoot three’s so much that he avoided them as much as possible as a result, shooting the lowest three-point rate of the elite group.
Fox’s strength is getting to the rim and, even more so, getting to the free throw line. Fox shot nearly half as many free throws as overall field goals, the highest rate of the top-5 and he shot free throws at a 73% clip, the second best number of the top-5. Fox also averaged 8 assists, 7 rebounds, and nearly 3 steals (2.7) per -100 possessions.
| PER | DRE/min | DRTG |
22.6 |
0.216
96.8
Fox isn’t loved by advanced stats and his production numbers don’t jump off that page when compared to the rest of the elites. His free throw rate was the only metric where he finished with the best mark. However, his solid statistical rating in every category is still a positive sign. Much of these could be accounted for the fact that Fox played the least minutes per game of any of the elites at just a shade under 30 minutes per game.
On the opposite side of the ball though, Fox’s defensive numbers are excellent and definitely indicate a particular strength of his game. He posted an excellent 96.8 defensive rating, not a tried and true individual metric, but still impressive.
A final note is in regards to Fox’s advanced numbers is his pretty low TO rate at 13.7%, displaying a keen ability to take care of the ball.
Comparison and Rookie Year Projection
Fox’s player comparisons feature a tour de force of point guards who have left their mark on the playoffs thus far. Rajon Rondo was the engine that drove the Bulls, who collapsed when he got injured. Mike Conley played a similar role for Memphis before the Spurs machine overtook them.
However, one comparison I have seen that should excite everyone and would definitely be my favorite is John Wall. Wall spent the 2017 playoffs strongly making his case for best point guard in the East, and his game lines up very closely to that of Fox’s.
Fox displays qualities of all this players and shares the Kentucky connection with Wall and Rondo. All three are adept at getting to the rim and free throw line while avoiding taking too many outside shots. Fox’s college stats match up pretty well with his three comparison’s rookie years. Similar numbers with Fox in scoring and free throw shooting, while other stats are a bit less comparable.
I tend to think that depending on who drafts Fox, he could begin his career with a heavier role, like the kind John Wall had in his rookie year. Wall put up 17p/8a/5r his rookie season which might be a little excessive for Fox, but 15p/6a/4r is an attainable line for Fox.
One thing that doesn’t come thru statistically for Fox is his intangibles and from what I have seen, that might be his best aspect. Fox has been excellent in the pre-draft interviews (especially the one on Draft Express) and is clearly a fierce competitor with an insatiable drive. If Fox can tap into that while also improving his jump shot, the biggest flaw in his game, he has a bright future.
Much like Markelle Fultz, Fox’s fit on the Suns would be interesting given his play style and similarities to Eric Bledsoe. Despite the possible fit issues, if the Suns have De’Aaron Fox at the top of their draft board at four, it would be important to take a long hard look at hI’m, and consider him to be their point guard of the very near future.